A Short Note on the Potential for a Momentum Based Investment Strategy in Sector ETFs

Abstract

The focus of this research is on the enhanced one-year average annual return performance of Select Sector SDPR EFFs with the highest average annual realized return over the previous five-year period [MaxRet strategy]. From 2004 through 2015, the MaxRet strategy generates a higher average annual total return than an equal weight portfolio [EW strategy] of the same sector funds. The average annual return for the MaxRet strategy is 14.13% compared to 9.75% for the EW strategy. In addition, the coefficient of variation [CV] for the MaxRet and EW strategies are 1.52 and 1.59 respectively. The MaxRet strategy, therefore, is a more efficient strategy in that it generates less standard deviation risk per unit of average annual return than the EW strategy over the study period. Measures of downside risk further support the enhanced out-of-sample performance of the MaxRet strategy.