Density of Development in Newly Urbanized Areas Over Time

Abstract

Initial significant development at the urban fringe is only the beginning of a period of development that continues for at least several decades. Two hypotheses are posited: The density of development in newly urbanized areas will increase over time, and the increase will be greater in urban areas that are growing more rapidly. The percent of housing in newly urbanized areas that is more dense — single-family attached and multifamily housing — is used as the measure of density. Percent more dense housing and its change were examined for the decades after urbanization in the areas newly urbanized from 1960 to 2010 for 59 large urban areas in the United States. Densities increased significantly in the 2 decades after those areas became urban and the increases were greater in faster growing urban areas.