Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets

Abstract

Future agricultural production is influenced by climate change and changes in policies and behavior, such as the proliferation of battery electric vehicles (BEV). For the United States (U.S.), the influence of the latter is more pronounced due to the size of the U.S. biofuel industry. Using a global agricultural trade model and different climate change pathways until 2050, we show that global commodity price increases triggered by declining yields due to climate change are dampened by an accelerated increase of U.S. BEV sales, which decrease maize ethanol demand. Accelerated BEV sales also reduce cropland requirements compared to baseline electrification scenarios. The accelerated market share of BEVs also (1) lowers the decrease in caloric intake for maize, rice, and wheat which has important food security implications in the presence of climate change and (2) changes trade relationships. The implications of those findings are that policy discussions surrounding policies to promote BEVs should include lower commodity prices and increased food security that dampen some of the negative effects of climate change. Those are additional benefits besides the direct emissions reduction (assuming low-or no-carbon electricity production) from reducing vehicles with internal combustion engines.