Factors of Concern Regarding Zika and Other Aedes aegypti-Transmitted Viruses in the United States

Abstract

The recent explosive outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya throughout the Americas has raised concerns about the threats that these and similar diseases may pose to the United States (U.S.). The commonly accepted association between tropical climates and the endemicity of these diseases has led to concerns about the possibility of their redistribution due to climate change and transmission arising from cases imported from endemic regions initiating outbreaks in the United States. While such possibilities are indeed well founded, the analysis of historical records not only confirms the potential critical role of traveling and globalization but also reveals that the climate in the United States currently is suitable for local transmission of these viruses. Thus, the main factors preventing these diseases from occurring in the United States today are more likely socioeconomic such as lifestyle, housing infrastructure, and good sanitation. As long as such conditions are maintained, it seems unlikely that local transmission will occur to any great degree, particularly in the northern states. Indeed, a contributing factor to explain the current endemicity of these diseases in less-developed American countries may be well explained by socioeconomic and some lifestyle characteristics in such countries.