Incorporating Sub-National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land-Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation

Abstract

We estimate emissions from indirect land-use change associated with U.S. corn ethanol production by using the updated Center for Agricultural and Rural Development/Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute global agricultural outlook model, which incorporates sub-national land-use modeling in Brazil and endogenous crop yield-price relationships. Emissions estimates range between 9.7–23.9 g CO2 per mega Joule (MJ−1), which is consistent with other estimates. We compare the results of the current model to the 2008 model version. Using the data from the 2016 model in the 2008 model results in emissions that range from 23.2–32.2 g CO2 MJ−1. The addition of detailed modelling in Brazil, for example, double-cropping, reduced estimates considerably and highlights the importance of continuous improvements in global agricultural models.