Extending differences-in-differences frameworks to Granger equations: Evidence from cutback management during three recessions

Abstract

Purpose The authors show how to extend difference-in-differences (DiD) frameworks to Granger (1969) equations, a technique that tests for the parallel trends assumption and measures changes in effect sizes over time. To illustrate how these equations work, they apply them to state cutback management decisions in three recessions. Design/methodology/approach This study applies quantitative methods. The authors estimate DiD frameworks as Granger (1969) equations. Findings After empirically analyzing recessions that started in 1990, 2001 and 2007, the authors find that states deepen expenditure cuts when economic declines lengthen and tend to make large cuts to specific expenditure categories instead of spreading cuts equally over all service areas. Originality/value The authors offer two contributions of methodological value. First, they introduce the estimation of Granger equations to the study of topics in public administration. Second, they show how this technique helps to evaluate the impact of economic declines on state spending. By instituting these contributions, they offer a unique way of analyzing cutback management decisions.