Visual (dis)Confirmation: Validating Models and Hypotheses with Visualizations

Abstract

Data visualization provides a powerful way for analysts to explore and make data-driven discoveries. However, current visual analytic tools provide only limited support for hypothesis-driven inquiry, as their built-in interactions and workflows are primarily intended for exploratory analysis. Visualization tools notably lack capabilities that would allow users to visually and incrementally test the fit of their conceptual models and provisional hypotheses against the data. This imbalance could bias users to overly rely on exploratory analysis as the principal mode of inquiry, which can be detrimental to discovery. In this paper, we introduce Visual (dis) Confirmation, a tool for conducting confirmatory, hypothesis-driven analyses with visualizations. Users interact by framing hypotheses and data expectations in natural language. The system then selects conceptually relevant data features and automatically generates visualizations to validate the underlying expectations. Distinctively, the resulting visualizations also highlight places where one's mental model disagrees with the data, so as to stimulate reflection. The proposed tool represents a new class of interactive data systems capable of supporting confirmatory visual analysis, and responding more intelligently by spotlighting gaps between one's knowledge and the data. We describe the algorithmic techniques behind this workflow. We also demonstrate the utility of the tool through a case study.