IU Indianapolis ScholarWorks :: Browsing by Author "Carriquiry, Miguel"

Browsing by Author "Carriquiry, Miguel"

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China-U.S. trade dispute and its impact on global agricultural markets, the U.S. economy, and greenhouse gas emissions
(Wiley, 2021) Elobeid, Amani; Carriquiry, Miguel; Dumortier, Jerome; Swenson, David; Hayes, Dermot J.; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
China is a major importer of agricultural products and we examine retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. pork, soybeans, corn, and wheat. We use an agricultural trade model to determine the impacts on agricultural commodity markets and combine our results with an input-output model to measure economic effects in the United States. In addition, we calculate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change. The consequences of retaliatory tariffs are both trade destruction (lower overall trade) and trade diversion (trade diverted away from the U.S. and to other exporting countries). By the end of the projection period, total U.S. pork exports decline by 4.7%. Total soybean and wheat exports decrease by 31.2% and 0.5%, respectively whereas corn exports increases by 4.0%. Domestic U.S. retail pork prices decline by 0.8% and commodity farm prices decrease by 4.2%, 5.1%, and 15.8% for corn, wheat, and soybeans, respectively. The decline in foreign demand reduces U.S. production and welfare. Key among these impacts are a loss of nearly 15,400 jobs and a fall in labor income by $1.35 billion due to a $3.70 billion decline in national output at the beginning of the projection period. By the last year of the projection, the impacts grow to almost 30,000 fewer jobs and $2.31 billion less labor income. The U.S. economy experiences a loss of slightly under $6.80 billion in national output. Changes in trade due to the tariffs result in a reduction of GHG emissions from land-use change of up to 83.7 teragram (Tg) of CO2-equivalent.
The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions
(Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research, 2013-04-05) Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel; Dong, Fengzia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Martin, Pamela A.; Mulik, Kranti
With climate change becoming an increasingly pressing issue together with a world population of 7 billion people in 2011, significant pressure is put on global agriculture and forestry. Although treated separately in national GHG inventories, there is little doubt that both categories are closely linked and climate policies targeting agriculture will have spillover effects on forestry and vice versa. Hence, the implementation of large-scale agricultural policies is prone to unintended consequences. For this poster, we analyze the hypothesis that a reduction of cattle in the U.S. causes a net increase in GHG emissions on a global scale. We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of U.S. beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO2-equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally.
Impact of Climate Change on Global Agricultural Markets under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(Wiley, 2021) Dumortier, Jerome; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
This analysis quantifies changesin global agricultural markets for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to yield changes triggered by climate change. The scenarios include four representative concentration pathways (RCP), five global climate models, three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) capturing differences in population levels and economic growth, and enhanced COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0001-fertilization. Yield projections incorporate the influence of SSPs on nitrogen application and agricultural technology. Depending on the SSP and comparing the RCP8.5 ensemble yields (with COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0002-fertilization) to a no climate change scenario in 2050, price increases for maize (61.3%–80.9%), soybeans (36.7%–51.7%), and wheat (5.4%–11.1%) are observed. Large wheat producers in temperate regions expand wheat production under climate change. Rice benefits from COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0003 fertilization resulting in a relatively uniform price decrease across scenarios of 19.5%–19.9%. Cropland expansion between 2015 and 2050 is lowest for the high economic growth scenario. Depending on the crop and region, there are significant reductions in production especially for maize. Absolute changes in trade patterns are most pronounced for wheat and least for rice. Using trade as a means to dampen the negative welfare effects of climate change will be important and so is economic growth.
Impact of different bioenergy crops on area allocation and cellulosic ethanol feedstock mix.
(2013-04) Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Martin, Pamela A.; Mulik, Kranti
Incorporating Sub-National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land-Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation
(Oxford, 2019-01) Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; Dumortier, Jerome; Goodrich, Ryan; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
We estimate emissions from indirect land-use change associated with U.S. corn ethanol production by using the updated Center for Agricultural and Rural Development/Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute global agricultural outlook model, which incorporates sub-national land-use modeling in Brazil and endogenous crop yield-price relationships. Emissions estimates range between 9.7–23.9 g CO2 per mega Joule (MJ−1), which is consistent with other estimates. We compare the results of the current model to the 2008 model version. Using the data from the 2016 model in the 2008 model results in emissions that range from 23.2–32.2 g CO2 MJ−1. The addition of detailed modelling in Brazil, for example, double-cropping, reduced estimates considerably and highlights the importance of continuous improvements in global agricultural models.
Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets
(Springer, 2023-01) Dumortier, Jerome; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Future agricultural production is influenced by climate change and changes in policies and behavior, such as the proliferation of battery electric vehicles (BEV). For the United States (U.S.), the influence of the latter is more pronounced due to the size of the U.S. biofuel industry. Using a global agricultural trade model and different climate change pathways until 2050, we show that global commodity price increases triggered by declining yields due to climate change are dampened by an accelerated increase of U.S. BEV sales, which decrease maize ethanol demand. Accelerated BEV sales also reduce cropland requirements compared to baseline electrification scenarios. The accelerated market share of BEVs also (1) lowers the decrease in caloric intake for maize, rice, and wheat which has important food security implications in the presence of climate change and (2) changes trade relationships. The implications of those findings are that policy discussions surrounding policies to promote BEVs should include lower commodity prices and increased food security that dampen some of the negative effects of climate change. Those are additional benefits besides the direct emissions reduction (assuming low-or no-carbon electricity production) from reducing vehicles with internal combustion engines.
Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets
(Elsevier, 2022-10) Dumortier, Jerome; Elobeid, Amani; Carriquiry, Miguel; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States (U.S.) decreases the long-term demand for maize ethanol. This analysis assesses the consequences of accelerated penetration of electric vehicles into the U.S. LDV fleet on global food production, prices, land-use, and carbon emissions. Population and income growth are framed around Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The scenarios progressively increase the 2050 sales share of electric LDVs to 100%. The results indicate a maximum price decline of 9.5% for maize and a significant increase in U.S. maize exports. The fleet electrification also leads to a decline in global cropland compared to the baseline by up to 4.4 million hectares at the end of the projection period. Mean GHG reductions in the 100% LDV sales scenario range from 39.4% to 52.0% of 2019 emissions from gasoline LDVs depending on the SSP. Thus, transportation policies supporting additional electric vehicles reduce food prices and carbon emissions.
Trade scenarios compensating for halted wheat and maize exports from Russia and Ukraine increase carbon emissions without easing food insecurity
(Springer, 2022-10) Carriquiry, Miguel; Dumortier, Jerome; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilized global agricultural markets, triggering food price increases. We present scenarios of reduced exports and production affecting both countries that increase maize and wheat prices by up to 4.6% and 7.2%, respectively. Production expansion in other regions can partially compensate for export declines but may increase carbon emissions and will exacerbate ongoing global food security challenges.
Where does all the biofuel go? Fuel efficiency gains and its effects on global agricultural production
(Elsevier, 2021-01) Dumortier, Jerome; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Increasing biofuel production over the last decade and biofuel policies in Brazil, the European Union, and the United States have changed the global agricultural landscape in terms of land-use, commodity prices, and trade. Increasing fuel efficiency and electrification of the vehicle stock is projected to lower gasoline, diesel, and biofuel demand in the future. In this analysis, we quantify the effects of a 30% reduction in ethanol consumption in the U.S. and the European Union triggered by higher vehicle fleet fuel efficiency on global agricultural markets. Our results show decreases in global commodity prices by 1.9%–6.6% and a slight decrease in global cropland by 0.3%. Major changes occur in trade patterns with U.S. corn exports increasing by 30.3%. Global greenhouse gas emissions are lower due to the overall reduction in cropland. Gasoline and diesel consumption of the vehicle fleet is not changing rapidly but is a long-term process because vehicles are on average in operation for 10 or more years. Consequently, there are important long-term policy implications from changes in fuel efficiency requirements or ethanol blending limits that affect commodity prices, trade, and greenhouse gas emissions.

Browsing by Author "Carriquiry, Miguel"

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