A model combining age, equivalent uniform dose and IL-8 may predict radiation esophagitis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Abstract

Background and purpose To study whether cytokine markers may improve predictive accuracy of radiation esophagitis (RE) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.

Materials and methods A total of 129 patients with stage I-III NSCLC treated with radiotherapy (RT) from prospective studies were included. Thirty inflammatory cytokines were measured in platelet-poor plasma samples. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risk factors of RE. Stepwise Akaike information criterion (AIC) and likelihood ratio test were used to assess model predictions.

Results Forty-nine of 129 patients (38.0%) developed grade ≥2 RE. Univariate analysis showed that age, stage, concurrent chemotherapy, and eight dosimetric parameters were significantly associated with grade ≥2 RE (p < 0.05). IL-4, IL-5, IL-8, IL-13, IL-15, IL-1α, TGFα and eotaxin were also associated with grade ≥2 RE (p <0.1). Age, esophagus generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD), and baseline IL-8 were independently associated grade ≥2 RE. The combination of these three factors had significantly higher predictive power than any single factor alone. Addition of IL-8 to toxicity model significantly improves RE predictive accuracy (p = 0.019).

Conclusions Combining baseline level of IL-8, age and esophagus EUD may predict RE more accurately. Refinement of this model with larger sample sizes and validation from multicenter database are warranted.