Prediction of Incident Diabetic Retinopathy in Adults With Type 1 Diabetes Using Machine Learning Approach: An Exploratory Study

Abstract

Background: Early detection and intervention are crucial for preventing vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (DR) in adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D). This exploratory study uses machine learning on continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data to identify factors influencing DR and predict high-risk individuals for timely intervention. Methods: Between June 2018 and March 2022, adults with T1D with incident DR or no retinopathy (control) were identified. The CGM data were collected retrospectively for up to seven years before the date of defining incident DR or no retinopathy. A mixture of three machine learning algorithms was trained and evaluated in two different scenarios, using different glycemic features extracted from CGM traces (scenario 1), and the two principal components (two PCs; exposure to hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia risk) of those features (scenario 2). Classifiers were evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC-ROC) to select the best classification model. Results: The CGM data of 30 adults with incident DR (mean±SD age of 21.2±9.4 years, glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c] of 8.6%±1.0%, and body mass index [BMI] of 24.5±4.8 kg/m2) and 30 adults without DR (age of 41.8±14.7 years, HbA1c of 7.0%±0.9%, and BMI of 26.2±3.6 kg/m2) were included in this analysis. In scenario 2, classifiers outperformed scenario 1, resulting in an average AUC-ROC increase to 0.92 for two of three models, indicating that the two PCs captured vital classification data, representing the most discriminative aspects and enhancing model performance. Conclusion: Machine learning approaches using CGM data may have potential to aid in identifying adults with T1D at risk of DR.