Predicting Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Occurrence Up to 10 Years in Advance Using Features of the Main Pancreatic Duct in Pre-Diagnostic CT Scans

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) prediction in high-risk individuals is essential for early detection and improved outcome. While prior studies have utilized pancreatic radiomics for PDAC prediction, the added value of main pancreatic duct (MPD) features remains unclear. This study aims to assess the additional value of features of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) for predicting PDAC occurrence across different timeframes in advance. Methods: In total, 321 contrast-enhanced CT scans of the MPD and pancreas carried out across control, pre-diagnostic, and diagnostic cohorts were segmented, and radiomics were extracted. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier was used to classify the control and pre-diagnostic cohorts, with model performance assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) Results: The MPD diameter and volume significantly increased from the control to the pre-diagnostic and diagnostic CT scans (p < 0.05). The addition of features of the MPD to the pancreas improved the PDAC prediction AUC from 0.83 to 0.96 for subjects 6 months to 3 years in advance, from 0.81 to 0.94 for 3-6 years in advance, and 0.75 to 0.84 for 6-10 years in advance of diagnosis. Additionally, integrating MPD radiomics with diameter and volume significantly improved the AUC from 0.81 to 0.88 for subjects 6 months to 3 years in advance. Conclusions: Radiomic features from abdominal CT scans allow PDAC prediction up to 10 years in advance. Integrating MPD features, including diameter and volume, significantly improves PDAC prediction compared to using radiomics of the pancreas alone.