A Machine Learning Model for Average Fuel Consumption in Heavy Vehicles

Abstract

This paper advocates a data summarization approach based on distance rather than the traditional time period when developing individualized machine learning models for fuel consumption. This approach is used in conjunction with seven predictors derived from vehicle speed and road grade to produce a highly predictive neural network model for average fuel consumption in heavy vehicles. The proposed model can easily be developed and deployed for each individual vehicle in a fleet in order to optimize fuel consumption over the entire fleet. The predictors of the model are aggregated over fixed window sizes of distance traveled. Different window sizes are evaluated and the results show that a 1 km window is able to predict fuel consumption with a 0.91 coefficient of determination and mean absolute peak-to-peak percent error less than 4% for routes that include both city and highway duty cycle segments.