Cost Effectiveness of Different Strategies for Detecting Cirrhosis in Patients With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Based on United States Health Care System

Abstract

Background & Aims Several strategies are available for detecting cirrhosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but their cost effectiveness is not clear. We developed a decision model to quantify the accuracy and costs of 9 single or combination strategies, including 3 noninvasive tests (fibrosis-4 [FIB-4], vibration controlled transient elastography [VCTE], and magnetic resonance elastography [MRE]) and liver biopsy, for detection of cirrhosis in patients with NAFLD. Methods Data on diagnostic accuracy, costs, adverse events, and cirrhosis outcomes over a 5-y period were obtained from publications. The diagnostic accuracy, per-patient cost per correct diagnosis of cirrhosis, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated for each strategy for base cirrhosis prevalence values of 0.27%, 2%, and 4%. Results The combination of the FIB-4 and VCTE identified patients with cirrhosis in NAFLD populations with a 0.27%, 2%, and 4% prevalence of cirrhosis with the lowest cost per person ($401, $690, and $1024, respectively) and highest diagnostic accuracy (89.3%, 88.5%, and 87.5% respectively). The combination of FIB-4 and MRE ranked second in cost per person ($491, $781, and $1114, respectively) and diagnostic accuracy (92.4%, 91.6%, 90.6%, respectively). Compared to the combination of FIB-4 and VCTE (least costly), the ICERs were lower for the combination of FIB-4 and MRE ($2864, $2918, and $2921) than the combination of FIB-4 and liver biopsy ($4454, $5156, and $5956) at the cirrhosis prevalence values tested. When goal was to avoid liver biopsy, FIB-4+VCTE and FIB-4+MRE had similar diagnostic accuracies, ranging from 87.5% to 89.3% and 90.6% to 92.4% for cirrhosis diagnosis, although FIB-4+MRE had a slightly higher cost. Conclusions In our cost effectiveness analysis based on United States health care system, we found that results from FIB-4, followed by either VCTE, MRE, or liver biopsy, detect cirrhosis in patients with NAFLD with a high level of accuracy and low cost. Compared to FIB-4 + VCTE which was the least costly strategy, FIB-4+MRE had lower ICER than FIB-4+LB.