A risk prediction tool for individuals with a family history of breast, ovarian, or pancreatic cancer: BRCAPANCPRO

dc.contributor.authorBlackford, Amanda L.
dc.contributor.authorChilds, Erica J.
dc.contributor.authorPorter, Nancy
dc.contributor.authorPetersen, Gloria M.
dc.contributor.authorRabe, Kari G.
dc.contributor.authorGallinger, Steven
dc.contributor.authorBorgida, Ayelet
dc.contributor.authorSyngal, Sapna
dc.contributor.authorCote, Michele L.
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Ann G.
dc.contributor.authorGoggins, Michael G.
dc.contributor.authorHruban, Ralph H.
dc.contributor.authorParmigiani, Giovanni
dc.contributor.authorKlein, Alison P.
dc.contributor.departmentEpidemiology, Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-26T15:01:07Z
dc.date.available2024-09-26T15:01:07Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractIntroduction: Identifying families with an underlying inherited cancer predisposition is a major goal of cancer prevention efforts. Mendelian risk models have been developed to better predict the risk associated with a pathogenic variant of developing breast/ovarian cancer (with BRCAPRO) and the risk of developing pancreatic cancer (PANCPRO). Given that pathogenic variants involving BRCA2 and BRCA1 predispose to all three of these cancers, we developed a joint risk model to capture shared susceptibility. Methods: We expanded the existing framework for PANCPRO and BRCAPRO to jointly model risk of pancreatic, breast, and ovarian cancer and validated this new model, BRCAPANCPRO on three data sets each reflecting the common target populations. Results: BRCAPANCPRO outperformed the prior BRCAPRO and PANCPRO models and yielded good discrimination for differentiating BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers from non-carriers (AUCs 0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84 and 0.70, 95% CI: 0.60-0.80) in families seen in high-risk clinics and pancreatic cancer family registries, respectively. In addition, BRCAPANCPRO was reasonably well calibrated for predicting future risk of pancreatic cancer (observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio = 0.81 [0.69, 0.94]). Discussion: The BRCAPANCPRO model provides improved risk assessment over our previous risk models, particularly for pedigrees with a co-occurrence of pancreatic cancer and breast and/or ovarian cancer.
dc.eprint.versionFinal published version
dc.identifier.citationBlackford AL, Childs EJ, Porter N, et al. A risk prediction tool for individuals with a family history of breast, ovarian, or pancreatic cancer: BRCAPANCPRO. Br J Cancer. 2021;125(12):1712-1717. doi:10.1038/s41416-021-01580-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1805/43638
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.relation.isversionof10.1038/s41416-021-01580-x
dc.relation.journalBritish Journal of Cancer
dc.rightsPublisher Policy
dc.sourcePMC
dc.subjectBreast neoplasms
dc.subjectOvarian neoplasms
dc.subjectPancreatic neoplasms
dc.titleA risk prediction tool for individuals with a family history of breast, ovarian, or pancreatic cancer: BRCAPANCPRO
dc.typeArticle
ul.alternative.fulltexthttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8651643/
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