Incidence Trends, Clinicopathologic Characteristics, and Overall Survival Prediction in Retinoblastoma Children: SEER Prognostic Nomogram Analysis

Abstract

Background: Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular malignant tumor occurring among children, with an incidence rate of 1/15 000. This study built a joinpoint regression model to assess the incidence trend of retinoblastoma from 2004 to 2015 and constructed a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) in children.

Materials and methods: Patients less than 19 years diagnosed with retinoblastoma from 2004 to 2015 were selected from the SEER database. Joinpoint regression analysis (version 4.9.0.0) was performed to evaluate the trends in retinoblastoma incidence rates from 2004 to 2015. Cox Regression Analysis was applied to investigate prognostic risk factors that influence OS.

Results: Joinpoint regression revealed that retinoblastoma incidence exhibited no significant increase or decrease from 2004 to 2015. As per the multiple Cox regression, tumor size, laterality, and residence (rural-urban continuum code) were correlated with OS and were used to construct a nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a good C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.79), and the calibration curve for survival probability demonstrated that the predictions corresponded well with actual observations.

Conclusions and relevance: A prognostic nomogram integrating the risk factors for retinoblastoma was constructed to provide comparatively accurate individual survival predictions. If validated, this type of assessment could be used to guide therapy in patients with retinoblastoma.