Predictors of Nodal and Metastatic Failure in Early Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer after Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Abstract

Introduction/Background Many early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) patients undergoing stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) develop metastases, which is associated with poor outcomes. We sought to identify factors predictive of metastases after lung SBRT and created a risk stratification tool.

Materials and Methods We included 363 patients with ES-NSCLC who received SBRT; median follow-up was 5.8 years. The following patient and tumor factors were retrospectively analyzed for their association with metastases (defined as nodal and/or distant failure): sex; age; lobe involved; centrality; previous NSCLC; smoking status; gross tumor volume (GTV); T-stage; histology; dose; minimum, maximum, and mean GTV dose; and parenchymal lung failure. A metastasis risk-score linear-model using beta coefficients from a multivariate Cox model was built.

Results A total of 111/406 (27.3%) lesions metastasized. GTV volume and dose were significantly associated with metastases on univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling (p<0.001 and HR=1.02 per mL, p<0.05 and HR=0.99 per Gy, respectively). Histology, T-stage, centrality, lung parenchymal failures, and previous NSCLC were not associated with development of metastasis. A metastasis risk-score model using GTV volume and prescription dose was built: [risk score=(0.01611 x GTV)–(0.00525 x dose (BED10))]. Two risk-score cutoffs separating the cohort into low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups were examined. The risk-score identified significant differences in time to metastases between low-, medium-, and high-risk patients (p<0.001), with 3-year estimates of 81.1%, 63.8%, and 38%, respectively.

Conclusion GTV volume and radiation dose are associated with time to metastasis and may be used to identify patients at higher risk of metastasis after lung SBRT.