A comprehensive evaluation of candidate genetic polymorphisms in a large histologically characterized MASLD cohort using a novel framework

Abstract

Background: There is a substantial heritable component to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), and several genetic variants that promote MASLD development or associate with its severity have been reported. These associations vary in terms of their effect size and degree of replication. Methods: We developed a framework to classify previously identified MASLD genetic polymorphisms into 4 tiers based on effect size and extent of replication in the literature. We tested the association between "tier 1" single-nucleotide polymorphisms (OR ≥1.5, replicated in >2 independent studies) and biopsy measures of MASLD severity in a large, well-characterized histologic cohort of MASLD patients (n=3094). Results: Across 19 "tier 1" variants reflecting 11 genetic loci, only those in the PNPLA3-SAMM50-PARVB locus showed significant associations with biopsy-proven fibrosis severity and NAFLD activity score; the highest risk was for the rs738409 p.I148M variant in PNPLA3. A genetic risk score based on "tier 1" variants, as well as a previously developed genetic risk score based on variants in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, and HSD17B13, were both associated with fibrosis and NAFLD activity score, but these results were driven entirely by PNPLA3 rs738409. Conclusions: Our study provides a framework to prioritize evaluation of genetic polymorphisms for future replication efforts and demonstrates that in a large case-only cohort, histologic severity of MASLD is only robustly associated with the presence of variation in PNPLA3 among known candidate genes. These findings may have implications for patient risk stratification based on the presence of PNPLA3 rs738409.