Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

dc.contributor.authorYin, Yuanyuan
dc.contributor.authorTang, Qiuhong
dc.contributor.authorWang, Lixin
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Xingcai
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Earth Science, School of Scienceen_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-31T15:34:40Z
dc.date.available2016-03-31T15:34:40Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractIdentifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21st century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.identifier.citationYin, Y., Tang, Q., Wang, L., & Liu, X. (2016). Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China. Scientific Reports, 6, 20905. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep20905en_US
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1805/9140
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherNPGen_US
dc.relation.isversionof10.1038/srep20905en_US
dc.relation.journalScientific Reportsen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
dc.subjectEcologyen_US
dc.titleRisk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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