A composite score using quantitative magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography predicts clinical outcomes in primary sclerosing cholangitis

Abstract

Background & aims: Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) for evaluation of biliary disease currently relies on subjective assessment with limited prognostic value because of the lack of quantitative metrics. Artificial intelligence-enabled quantitative MRCP (MRCP+) is a novel technique that segments biliary anatomy and provides quantitative biliary tree metrics. This study investigated the utility of MRCP+ as a prognostic tool for the prediction of clinical outcomes in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC).

Methods: MRCP images of patients with PSC were post-processed using MRCP+ software. The duration between the MRCP and clinical event (liver transplantation or death) was calculated. Survival analysis and stepwise Cox regression were performed to investigate the optimal combination of MRCP+ metrics for the prediction of clinical outcomes. The resulting risk score was validated in a separate validation cohort and compared with an existing prognostic score (Mayo risk score).

Results: In this retrospective study, 102 patients were included in a training cohort and a separate 50 patients formed a validation cohort. Between the two cohorts, 34 patients developed clinical outcomes over a median duration of 3 years (23 liver transplantations and 11 deaths). The proportion of bile ducts with diameter 3-5 mm, total bilirubin, and aspartate aminotransferase were independently associated with transplant-free survival. Combined as a risk score, the overall discriminative performance of the MRCP+ risk score (M+BA) was excellent; area under the receiver operator curve 0.86 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.95) at predicting clinical outcomes in the validation cohort with a hazard ratio 5.8 (95% CI: 1.5, 22.1). This was superior to the Mayo risk score.

Conclusions: A composite score combining MRCP+ with total bilirubin and aspartate aminotransferase (M+BA) identified PSC patients at high risk of liver transplantation or death. Prospective studies are warranted to evaluate the clinical utility of this novel prognostic tool.

Impact and implications: Primary sclerosis cholangitis (PSC) is a disease of the biliary tree where inflammation and fibrosis cause areas of narrowing (strictures) and expansion (dilatations) within the biliary ducts leading to liver failure and/or cancer (cholangiocarcinoma). In this study, we demonstrate that quantitative assessment of the biliary tree can better identify patients with PSC who are at high risk of either death or liver transplantation than a current blood-based risk score (Mayo risk score).