Associating Persistent Self-Reported Cognitive Decline with Neurocognitive Decline in Older Breast Cancer Survivors Using Machine Learning: The Thinking and Living with Cancer Study

Abstract

Introduction: Many cancer survivors report cognitive problems following diagnosis and treatment. However, the clinical significance of patient-reported cognitive symptoms early in survivorship can be unclear. We used a machine learning approach to determine the association of persistent self-reported cognitive symptoms two years after diagnosis and neurocognitive test performance in a prospective cohort of older breast cancer survivors. Materials and methods: We enrolled breast cancer survivors with non-metastatic disease (n = 435) and age- and education-matched non-cancer controls (n = 441) between August 2010 and December 2017 and followed until January 2020; we excluded women with neurological disease and all women passed a cognitive screen at enrollment. Women completed the FACT-Cog Perceived Cognitive Impairment (PCI) scale and neurocognitive tests of attention, processing speed, executive function, learning, memory and visuospatial ability, and timed activities of daily living assessments at enrollment (pre-systemic treatment) and annually to 24 months, for a total of 59 individual neurocognitive measures. We defined persistent self-reported cognitive decline as clinically meaningful decline (3.7+ points) on the PCI scale from enrollment to twelve months with persistence to 24 months. Analysis used four machine learning models based on data for change scores (baseline to twelve months) on the 59 neurocognitive measures and measures of depression, anxiety, and fatigue to determine a set of variables that distinguished the 24-month persistent cognitive decline group from non-cancer controls or from survivors without decline. Results: The sample of survivors and controls ranged in age from were ages 60-89. Thirty-three percent of survivors had self-reported cognitive decline at twelve months and two-thirds continued to have persistent decline to 24 months (n = 60). Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) models distinguished survivors with persistent self-reported declines from controls (AUC = 0.736) and survivors without decline (n = 147; AUC = 0.744). The variables that separated groups were predominantly neurocognitive test performance change scores, including declines in list learning, verbal fluency, and attention measures. Discussion: Machine learning may be useful to further our understanding of cancer-related cognitive decline. Our results suggest that persistent self-reported cognitive problems among older women with breast cancer are associated with a constellation of mild neurocognitive changes warranting clinical attention.