Financial markets 2020: When will P/E ratios be great again?

Abstract

Let's review: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate. This shifted many interest rates down (not the mortgage rate though). More than the damage from tariffs, the uncertainty of what Mr. Trump might do next caused business confidence to fall. This has led to increases in hurdle rates for capital projects across the board, thus slowing capital investment, ultimately yielding slower output that is reflected in roughly 2 percent GDP growth in the last two quarters. President Trump and some in the White House blame the Federal Reserve and Europe for this slump, but neither explanation holds up. * Europe hasn't grown fast for decades, and its 2017 growth bump was helped by faster U.S. growth. * Businesses were not starving for money even before the Fed began cutting rates again this summer. The best sector, communication services, is expected to rise 9.1 percent, while the worst sector, financials, is predicted to rise 1.9 percent. * Year-over-year revenue growth: This is a positive 3.1 percent for the S&P 500 from third quarter 2018 to third quarter 2019, led by health care. * Quarter 3 earnings and revenue "beats": Of the 355 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported for the third quarter of 2019, 76 percent have reported earnings above the mean estimate of analysts (higher than the historical average of 69 percent) and 61 percent have reported revenues above the mean estimate (below the historical average of 66 percent). * IPOs: There have been 140 IPOs (as of October 15) that raised $43 billion. This is down 4 percent over this time last year, but much larger than 2016-2017.