Correlations of Online Search Engine Trends with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Incidence: Infodemiology Study

Date
2020-05-21
Language
American English
Embargo Lift Date
Committee Members
Degree
Degree Year
Department
Grantor
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Found At
JMIR Publications
Abstract

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is the latest pandemic of the digital age. With the internet harvesting large amounts of data from the general population in real time, public databases such as Google Trends (GT) and the Baidu Index (BI) can be an expedient tool to assist public health efforts.

Objective: The aim of this study is to apply digital epidemiology to the current COVID-19 pandemic to determine the utility of providing adjunctive epidemiologic information on outbreaks of this disease and evaluate this methodology in the case of future pandemics.

Methods: An epidemiologic time series analysis of online search trends relating to the COVID-19 pandemic was performed from January 9, 2020, to April 6, 2020. BI was used to obtain online search data for China, while GT was used for worldwide data, the countries of Italy and Spain, and the US states of New York and Washington. These data were compared to real-world confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19. Chronologic patterns were assessed in relation to disease patterns, significant events, and media reports.

Results: Worldwide search terms for shortness of breath, anosmia, dysgeusia and ageusia, headache, chest pain, and sneezing had strong correlations (r>0.60, P<.001) to both new daily confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. GT COVID-19 (search term) and GT coronavirus (virus) searches predated real-world confirmed cases by 12 days (r=0.85, SD 0.10 and r=0.76, SD 0.09, respectively, P<.001). Searches for symptoms of diarrhea, fever, shortness of breath, cough, nasal obstruction, and rhinorrhea all had a negative lag greater than 1 week compared to new daily cases, while searches for anosmia and dysgeusia peaked worldwide and in China with positive lags of 5 days and 6 weeks, respectively, corresponding with widespread media coverage of these symptoms in COVID-19.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates the utility of digital epidemiology in providing helpful surveillance data of disease outbreaks like COVID-19. Although certain online search trends for this disease were influenced by media coverage, many search terms reflected clinical manifestations of the disease and showed strong correlations with real-world cases and deaths.

Description
item.page.description.tableofcontents
item.page.relation.haspart
Cite As
Higgins, T. S., Wu, A. W., Sharma, D., Illing, E. A., Rubel, K., & Ting, J. Y. (2020). Correlations of Online Search Engine Trends with Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Incidence: Infodemiology Study. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.2196/19702
ISSN
2369-2960
Publisher
Series/Report
Sponsorship
Major
Extent
Identifier
Relation
Journal
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Source
Publisher
Alternative Title
Type
Article
Number
Volume
Conference Dates
Conference Host
Conference Location
Conference Name
Conference Panel
Conference Secretariat Location
Version
Final published version
Full Text Available at
This item is under embargo {{howLong}}