Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling in pregnancy: Model reproducibility and external validation

Abstract

Aims Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have been previously developed for betamethasone and buprenorphine for pregnant women. The goal of this work was to replicate and reassess these models using data from recently completed studies.

Methods Betamethasone and buprenorphine PBPK models were developed in Simcyp V19 based on prior publications using V17 and V15. Ability to replicate models was verified by comparing predictions in V19 to those previously published. Once replication was verified, models were reassessed by comparing predictions to observed data from additional studies in pregnant women. Model performance was based upon visual inspection of concentration vs. time profiles, and comparison of pharmacokinetic parameters. Models were deemed reproducible if parameter estimates were within 10% of previously reported values. External validations were considered acceptable if the predicted area under the concentration–time curve (AUC) and peak plasma concentration fell within 2-fold of the observed.

Results The betamethasone model was successfully replicated using Simcyp V19, with ratios of reported (V17) to reproduced (V19) peak plasma concentration of 0.98–1.04 and AUC of 0.95–1.07. The model-predicted AUC ratios ranged from 0.98–1.79 compared to external data. The previously published buprenorphine PBPK model was not reproducible, as we predicted intravenous clearance of 70% that reported previously (both in Simcyp V15).

Conclusion While high interstudy variability was observed in the newly available clinical data, the PBPK model sufficiently predicted changes in betamethasone exposure across gestation. Model reproducibility and reassessment with external data are important for the advancement of the discipline. PBPK modelling publications should contain sufficient detail and clarity to enable reproducibility.