Heterogeneous liver on research ultrasound identifies children with cystic fibrosis at high risk of advanced liver disease

Abstract

Background: This study examines whether heterogeneous (HTG) pattern on liver ultrasound (US) identifies children at risk for advanced cystic fibrosis liver disease (aCFLD). Methods: Prospective 6-year multicenter case-controlled cohort study. Children with pancreatic insufficient cystic fibrosis (CF) aged 3-12 years without known cirrhosis underwent screening US. Participants with HTG were matched (by age, Pseudomonas infection status and center) 1:2 with participants with normal (NL) US pattern. Clinical status and laboratory data were obtained annually and US bi-annually for 6 years. Primary endpoint was development of nodular (NOD) US pattern consistent with aCFLD. Results: 722 participants underwent screening US, with 65 HTG and 592 NL. Final cohort included 55 HTG and 116 NL with ≥ 1 follow-up US. ALT, AST, GGTP, FIB-4, GPR and APRI were higher, and platelets were lower in HTG compared to NL. HTG had a 9.5-fold increased incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]:3.4, 26.7, p<0.0001, 32.7% vs 3.4%) of NOD versus NL. HTG had a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 75% for subsequent NOD. Negative predictive value of a NL US for subsequent NOD was 96%. Multivariate logistic prediction model that included baseline US, age, and log(GPR) improved the C-index to 0.90 compared to only baseline US (C-index 0.78). Based on survival analysis, 50% of HTG develop NOD after 8 years. Conclusions: Research US finding of HTG identifies children with CF with a 30-50% risk for aCFLD. A score based on US pattern, age and GPR may refine the identification of individuals at high risk for aCFLD.