Vascular Quality Initiative risk score for 30-day stroke or death following transcarotid artery revascularization

Abstract

Objective: Transcarotid artery revascularization (TCAR) using a flow-reversal neuroprotection system has gained popularity for the endovascular treatment of carotid artery atherosclerotic disease owing to its lower risk of stroke or death compared with transfemoral carotid artery stenting. However, specific risk factors associated with stroke or death complications after TCAR have yet to be defined. Methods: All patients undergoing TCAR for the treatment of asymptomatic or symptomatic atherosclerotic carotid disease were identified between September 2016 and September 2019 in the Vascular Quality Initiative TCAR Surveillance Project. Our primary outcome was 30-day stroke or death. We created a risk model for 30-day stroke or death using multivariable fractional polynomials and internally validated the model using bootstrapping. Results: During the study period 7633 patients underwent TCAR, of which 4089 (53.6%) were treated for symptomatic and 3544 (46.4%) for asymptomatic disease. The average age of patients undergoing TCAR was 73.3 ± 9.1 years and 63.7% were male. Stroke or death events within 30 days of the index operation occurred in 153 patients (2.0%). Factors independently associated with a higher odds of 30-day stroke or death included the severity of presenting stroke symptoms (cortical transient ischemic attack, odds ratio [OR], 2.17 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.21-3.90; P = .009]; stroke, OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 2.25-4.85; P < .001), advancing age (OR, 1.03 per year; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; P = .003), and history of unstable angina or myocardial infarction within the past 6 months (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.29-3.77; P = .004), moderate or severe congestive heart failure (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.31-4.55; P = .005), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (on medications, OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.06-2.43; P = .024]; on home oxygen, OR, 2.52 [95% CI, 1.44-4.41; P = .001]), and prior ipsilateral carotid endarterectomy (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.09-2.25; P = .016), whereas preoperative P2Y12 use was associated with a lower odds of 30-day stroke or death (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39-0.85; P = .005). A 30-point risk prediction model created based on these criteria produced a C statistic of 0.72 and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit of 0.97. Internal validation demonstrated good discrimination with a bias corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70 with a calibration slope of 1.00. Conclusions: This Vascular Quality Initiative TCAR risk score calculator can be used to estimate the risk of stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure. Because TCAR is commonly used to treat patients with high surgical risk for carotid endarterectomy, this risk score will help to guide treatment decisions in patients being considered for TCAR.