Predictors of Citations in Neurosurgical Research: A 5-year Follow-Up

Abstract

Introduction Citation rates are an important measure for the impact of publications. This study is the most comprehensive analysis of predictors for scientific neurosurgical research articles. Methods Scientific articles published in 13 neurosurgical journals in 2015 were selected. Data collected included: article subject, level of evidence (LOE), journal impact factor (IF), authorship, contributing centers, and study design. Citation counts were collected for each article in the Web of Science (WoS), Google Scholar (GS), and Scopus 2.5 and 5 years after publication. A generalized linear mixed effects model using the predictors of search engine, LOE, number of centers, number of authors, and IF was constructed to predict total citation count at 5 years. Results 2867 articles generated 39190 citations in WoS, 61682 in GS, and 43481 in Scopus. The median [interquartile range] number of citations per article was 10 [14] in WoS, 15 [20] in GS, and 11 [15] in Scopus. On average, for every 1 citation in WoS, Scopus and GS identified 1.11 and 1.58 citations, respectively. Significant predictors of citation count in all databases 5 years after publication included search engine, LOE, number of centers, number of authors, number of countries, journal IF, and the month of publication (p<0.05). The article subject (tumor, spine, etc.) did not significantly predict citation counts. Conclusions In the most thorough analysis of citation predictors in the neurosurgical literature, search engine, LOE, number of centers, number of authors, number of countries, journal impact factor, and month of publication influenced citations 5 years after publication.