Browsing by Subject "land-use change"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    The effects of uncertainty under a cap-and-trade policy on afforestation in the United States
    (2013-10-30) Dumortier, Jerome
    To combat climate change, cap-and-trade policies have been proposed and implemented in countries around the world. The stochastic carbon price that results from a cap-and-trade policy makes investment decisions in carbon mitigating and sequestering practices more complex. This letter illustrates the consequence of uncertainty by analyzing forest carbon offset credits under a potential cap-and-trade policy in the United States. The effects of uncertainty on afforestation, carbon sequestration, cropland allocation, and commodity prices using a real option framework are assessed. When compared with deterministic models, less land gets converted from cropland to forestry over the projection period of 40 years because landowners find it optimal to wait before changing land-use to gain more information about the carbon price evolution. The simulation shows that most afforestation occurs in the south and the northeast with almost no conversion in the Corn Belt. The lesson for policy makers is that under carbon price uncertainty, lower afforestation and carbon sequestration takes place. To foster afforestation, mechanisms are necessary to reduce uncertainty at the expense of higher commodity prices.
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    Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets
    (Springer, 2023-01) Dumortier, Jerome; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
    Future agricultural production is influenced by climate change and changes in policies and behavior, such as the proliferation of battery electric vehicles (BEV). For the United States (U.S.), the influence of the latter is more pronounced due to the size of the U.S. biofuel industry. Using a global agricultural trade model and different climate change pathways until 2050, we show that global commodity price increases triggered by declining yields due to climate change are dampened by an accelerated increase of U.S. BEV sales, which decrease maize ethanol demand. Accelerated BEV sales also reduce cropland requirements compared to baseline electrification scenarios. The accelerated market share of BEVs also (1) lowers the decrease in caloric intake for maize, rice, and wheat which has important food security implications in the presence of climate change and (2) changes trade relationships. The implications of those findings are that policy discussions surrounding policies to promote BEVs should include lower commodity prices and increased food security that dampen some of the negative effects of climate change. Those are additional benefits besides the direct emissions reduction (assuming low-or no-carbon electricity production) from reducing vehicles with internal combustion engines.
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    Where does all the biofuel go? Fuel efficiency gains and its effects on global agricultural production
    (Elsevier, 2021-01) Dumortier, Jerome; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
    Increasing biofuel production over the last decade and biofuel policies in Brazil, the European Union, and the United States have changed the global agricultural landscape in terms of land-use, commodity prices, and trade. Increasing fuel efficiency and electrification of the vehicle stock is projected to lower gasoline, diesel, and biofuel demand in the future. In this analysis, we quantify the effects of a 30% reduction in ethanol consumption in the U.S. and the European Union triggered by higher vehicle fleet fuel efficiency on global agricultural markets. Our results show decreases in global commodity prices by 1.9%–6.6% and a slight decrease in global cropland by 0.3%. Major changes occur in trade patterns with U.S. corn exports increasing by 30.3%. Global greenhouse gas emissions are lower due to the overall reduction in cropland. Gasoline and diesel consumption of the vehicle fleet is not changing rapidly but is a long-term process because vehicles are on average in operation for 10 or more years. Consequently, there are important long-term policy implications from changes in fuel efficiency requirements or ethanol blending limits that affect commodity prices, trade, and greenhouse gas emissions.