Predictive policing : a comparative study of three hotspot mapping techniques

Abstract

Law enforcement agencies across the U.S. use maps of crime to inform their practice and make efforts to reduce crime. Hotspot maps using historic crime data can show practitioners concentrated areas of criminal offenses and the types of offenses that have occurred; however, not all of these hotspot crime mapping techniques produce the same results. This study compares three hotspot crime mapping techniques and four crime types using the Predictive Accuracy Index (PAI) to measure the predictive accuracy of these mapping techniques in Marion County, Indiana. Results show that the grid hotspot mapping technique and crimes of robbery are most predictive. Understanding the most effective crime mapping technique will allow law enforcement to better predict and therefore prevent crimes.