Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Phase II Clinical Trials Evaluating Subgroup-Specific Treatment Effect

Abstract

In Phase II clinical trials, particularly for molecularly targeted agents (MTAs) and biotherapies, there is a critical need to evaluate subgroup-specific treatment effects due to the heterogeneous nature of these therapies. This dissertation introduces two innovative Bayesian adaptive designs for biomarker-guided clinical trials: the Bayesian Order Constrained Adaptive (BOCA) design and the Bayesian Adaptive Marker-Stratified Design Using Calibrated Spike-and-Slab priors (SSS). The BOCA design addresses the limitations of the "one-size-fits-all" approach in non-randomized Phase II trials by efficiently detecting subgroup-specific treatment effects. It combines elements of enrichment and sequential designs, starting with an "all-comers" stage and transitioning to an enrichment stage based on interim analysis results. The decision to continue with either the marker-positive or marker-negative subgroup is guided by two posterior probabilities utilizing inherent ordering constraints. This adaptive approach enhances trial efficiency and cost-effectiveness while managing missing biomarker data. Comprehensive simulation studies show that the BOCA design outperforms conventional designs in detecting subgroup-specific treatment effects, making it a robust tool for Phase II trials. The SSS design improves the efficiency of marker-stratified designs (MSD) by leveraging clinical features of biomarkers and treatments. Patients are classified into marker-positive and marker-negative subgroups and randomized to receive either the MTA or a control treatment. The SSS design uses spike-and-slab priors to dynamically share information on response rates across subgroups, governed by two posterior probabilities that assess similarities in response rates. Additionally, it incorporates a Bayesian multiple imputation method to address missing biomarker profiles. Simulation studies confirm that the SSS design exhibits favorable operational characteristics, surpassing conventional designs in evaluating subgroup-specific treatment effects. Both the BOCA and SSS designs represent significant advancements in Bayesian adaptive methodologies for Phase II trials. By addressing traditional approach limitations, these designs enhance the evaluation of subgroup-specific treatment effects, contributing valuable methodologies to the field of personalized medicine.