Child safety, absolute risk, and the prevention paradox

Abstract

While child-saftey proposals aim to improve child safety, their possible impact is unclear since there’s been so little discussion of the amount of absolute risk and risk reduction involved in each. And while precise figures are lacking, rough estimates indicate that the magnitudes are quite small. I will argue that this risk and benefit data raises important questions about the proposals, including whether parents might reasonably believe that the small absolute risk reduction offered by the proposed changes does not justify the attendant burdens. This possibility – termed the “prevention paradox” in other contexts – highlights ethical and theoretical challenges in this area of public health.