An application and evaluation of a model of student attrition using freshmen at a public urban commuter university

Abstract

Although college student attrition has been investigated for many decades, this phenomenon has recently assumed greater importance to faculty, administrators, and statewide planners who are concerned with the future of their higher education institutions in the remainder of this century. Because of a decrease in the size of the traditional student age cohort, college enrollments are predicted to decline until at least 1997 (Carnegie Council, 1980). Institutions, currently experiencing a difficult economic situation resulting from a decade of high inflation and decreased federal funding, may also incur a loss of income from a reduction in student enrollment (Mortimer & Tierney, 1978). This additional decrement in revenue may seriously erode the quality and breadth of academic programs and even threaten the survival of many institutions.