Investigating the Effects of Synoptic-Scale Climatic Processes on Local-Scale Hydrology by Combining Multi-Proxy Analyses of Lacustrine Sediments and Instrumental Records

Abstract

Paleoclimate records from North and South America were used to develop a holistic understanding of global paleo-hydroclimatic drivers across a range of boundary conditions. Here, geophysical analysis of lacustrine sediment stratigraphy at Lago de Tota, Boyaca, Colombia provided evidence for significant lake-level fluctuations through the late Quaternary and produced a record that potentially spans the last 60 ka. Seismic data revealed a series of off-lap and on-lap sequences in the upper ~20 m of sediments that indicated large amplitude changes in lake-level, driven by variability in the mean latitude of the Intertropical Convergence Zone as controlled by insolation- and ocean circulation-driven hemispheric temperature gradients during glacial/stadial and interglacial/interstadial events. In North America, late Holocene flood recurrence in the Midwest and Holocene changes in the mean latitude of the polar front jet stream were investigated through multi-proxy examinations of sediment cores collected from swale lakes in northern Kentucky and southern Indiana, and a glacially formed kettle lake in northern Indiana. These results showed that the midlatitude jet stream was displaced to the south during the late Holocene, which increased the amount of Midwestern precipitation sourced from the northern Pacific and Arctic, especially during prolonged cool conditions. During these cool periods, when atmospheric flow was meridional and a greater amount of precipitation was delivered from the northerly sources, Ohio River flooding increased. During warm conditions, when clockwise mean-state atmospheric circulation advected southerly moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwest, flooding on the Ohio River decreased. At present, streamflow in the Midwest is demonstrated here to be generally increasing, despite atmospheric conditions typically associated with reduced streamflow in the paleo-record, due in part to increasing precipitation and modern land-use dynamics. Together, these studies demonstrate the sensitivity and vulnerability of local-scale hydrological processes to synoptic climate change.