Late Holocene Climate-Flood Relationships on the White River, Indiana, USA

Abstract

The frequency and magnitude of floods in the midcontinental United States have increased in recent decades due to changing precipitation patterns as global temperatures rise. These trends pose major social and economic risks to the region, which is home to tens of millions of Americans and a global agricultural center. It is therefore critical to understand if current fluvial dynamics are within the scope of past fluvial-climate relationships, or if they represent a novel response to recent climate and land-use changes. Presented is a 1600-year-long flood frequency record for the moderately sized (~29,400 km2 watershed) White River, Indiana. Flood frequencies were determined using 14C-based sediment accumulation rates at Half Moon Pond, an oxbow lake on the lower White River’s floodplain. Comparison with regional paleoclimate data shows that White River flooding was frequent when atmospheric circulation resembled the negative mode of the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection, particularly during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE) and the Current Warm Period (last ~150 years). During these times, the regional climate was dominated by warm-season precipitation originating from the Gulf of Mexico. Conversely, White River flooding was less frequent during the Little Ice Age (1250-1800 CE) when cold-season precipitation from the North Pacific/Arctic dominated (+PNA-like conditions). The pre-1790 CE White River flood history was antiphased with reconstructed Ohio River flood frequencies from southern Illinois. This dynamic is consistent with discharge in small to moderate sized watersheds being sensitive to rainstorm runoff and large watersheds being sensitive to snowmelt runoff. After 1790 CE, flooding frequencies of both river systems increased to their highest levels, despite a shift to -PNA-like conditions. This change was likely due to extensive Euro-American land-clearance, which increased runoff/erosion by reducing evapotranspiration, interception, and infiltration. While the White River responded strongly to climatic conditions in the past that were similar to present conditions (-PNA-like conditions), recent land-use practices have amplified the effects of the current hydroclimate. Since a warming climate is expected to increase regional average precipitation and extreme rainfall events, and that landscape modifications have lowered surface resilience to hydroclimate events, flooding will likely become more frequent in the coming decades.