The referendum lighthouse: how state-level initiatives drive voter turnout

Abstract

This thesis examines the use of ballot initiatives at the state level to determine whether the presence of certain types of ballot initiatives cause an increase in voter turnout at the state level. This study is unique in that rather than focusing on individual level voting behavior to explain why an individual may or may not be more likely to vote with the inclusion of ballot initiatives, I focus on aggregate level data to answer the following questions: do certain types of ballot initiatives have an effect on voter turnout? If so, how large is the effect? Collecting data from all ballot initiatives that appeared in the United States from 1998-2014, my research disputes the conventional wisdom that ballot initiatives have any effect on voter turnout during a presidential election. However, my research shows a four percent increase in turnout when any initiative appears on the ballot and a nearly five percent increase in voter turnout when an initiative concerning same-sex marriage appeared on the ballot during a non-presidential year election.