What are the odds? A preliminary test of a theoretical model of sports team effectiveness

Abstract

This study served as a preliminary test of the Sports Team Effectiveness (STE) Model developed by Devine, Lindsey, and Wolfarth in 2017. The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which several variables help explain winning in professional basketball. The value of the STE model in predicting the winner of basketball games was compared to already-existing predictors of winning. Archival data from 435 games from the 2016-2017 season of the National Basketball Association (NBA) were examined. Bivariate correlations between each antecedent of team effectiveness and team effectiveness were computed. Secondly, multiple logistic regression was used to examine the extent to which the antecedents predict winning while controlling for the other antecedents. Finally, hierarchical logistic regression was used to examine the extent to which the STE model can predict the winner of the game above and beyond game location and opposition quality. The variables of game location, opposition quality, role performance, and number of contested shots taken by the opposing team were significantly related to winning. Overall, the STE model did significantly reduce model error above and beyond game location and opposition quality, giving empirical support to the theoretical model.