Late Holocene Climate-Flood Relationships on the Lower Ohio River

Abstract

The frequency and magnitude of flooding events on the Lower Ohio River and their relationship with climate are investigated using a ca. 2000-year-long sediment core collected from Goose Pond, Indiana. Using high-resolution radiocarbon dating (n = 25), late Holocene sedimentation rates were calculated for Goose Pond. Changes in sediment accumulation rates are attributed to variations in the frequency of flooding events on the lower Ohio River. Elevated sedimentation rates immediately following the formation of Goose Pond ca. 2000 years ago persisted until 680 CE, suggesting regular flooding during this interval. Between 680 and 1190 CE, sedimentation rates decreased dramatically and abruptly, indicating a reduction in flood frequencies. Sedimentation rates subsequently increased again at ca. 1190 CE and persisted at a similar level until 1850 CE, suggesting that flooding frequencies increased during a time that overlapped with the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1250-1850 CE). Sedimentation rates increased again at ca. 1850 CE, reaching a 2000-year high (3.33 cm/yr) at 1970 CE and indicating a period characterized by frequent flooding and landscape erosion. The flood record from Goose Pond shows similarities with other Lower Ohio River flood reconstructions from Avery Lake, IL, and Hovey Lake, IN, suggesting the Goose Pond record reflects the regional flooding history for the lower Ohio River. Comparison with paleoclimate records from the Midwest supports the idea that lower Ohio River flood frequencies prior to Euro American occupation in the 1800s increased during times when winter precipitation predominated as a result of atmospheric circulation changes resembling the Pacific North vii American mode (PNA) that appear to have been driven in part by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Following Euro-American land clearance, lower Ohio River flooding increased dramatically despite a decrease in winter precipitation. This likely reflects an increase in runoff and erosion as a result of deforestation and landscape conversion to intensive row crop agriculture. As climate continues to change and the Midwestern United States continues to see an increase in precipitation, both winter and summer, flood frequencies could be expected to increase still further.