Browsing by Subject "earthquakes"

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    Application of Scenario Earthquakes for Analysis of Seismically Triggered Landslide Hazard: A Case Study in Costa Rica
    (Central American School of Geology, University of Costa Rica, 2022-07-11) Seal , Dylan M.; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Hamburger, Michael W.; Ruiz , Paulo; Earth and Environmental Sciences, School of Science
    In this study, we demonstrate the capabilities of hypothetical scenario earthquakes as a new tool for assessment of hazards associated with earthquake-triggered landslides. Costa Rica offers an ideal environment for demonstrating the utility of scenario earthquakes due to its diverse tectonic environments and associated widespread seismic hazard, rugged topography, and high landslide susceptibility. We investigate the relative influence of landslide proxies such as topographic slope, peak ground velocity (PGV), and compound topographic index (CTI), and earthquake source parameters such as magnitude and depth, on predicted landslide probability and fatality. We examine five distinct tectonic environments, including subduction events beneath the (1) Nicoya and (2) Osa peninsulas respectively, (3) intraplate earthquakes beneath the Central Volcanic Range (CVR) and (4) the Central Costa Rica Deformed Belt (CCRDB), and (5) back-arc thrust events on the eastern Caribbean coast. Our results demonstrate that the slope, PGV, and CTI thresholds necessary to produce landslide probabilities greater than 10% vary by tectonic environment. In all cases, we observe magnitude to be the primary control on the predicted maximum landslide probability and overall areal landslide coverage. We validate model predictions with observed landslide inventories from the 2009 Cinchona and 1991 Limon earthquakes, demonstrating a good fit, where over 70% of landslides occurring in zones of greater than 20% probability. We also use a global model of landslide impact to predict exposure and fatality ranges for each scenario earthquake of this study, revealing that moderate-sized earthquakes in the CCRDB and CVR and large subduction megathrust earthquakes each pose a significant hazard to Costa Rica’s population.
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    A coupled ETAS-I2GMM point process with applications to seismic fault detection
    (Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2018-09) Cheng, Yicheng; Dundar, Murat; Mohler, George
    Epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) point process is a common model for the occurrence of earthquake events. The ETAS model consists of a stationary background Poisson process modeling spontaneous earthquakes and a triggering kernel representing the space–time-magnitude distribution of aftershocks. Popular nonparametric methods for estimation of the background intensity include histograms and kernel density estimators. While these methods are able to capture local spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of spontaneous events, they do not capture well patterns resulting from fault line structure over larger spatial scales. Here we propose a two-layer infinite Gaussian mixture model for clustering of earthquake events into fault-like groups over intermediate spatial scales. We introduce a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for joint inference of the ETAS-I2GMM model and then apply the model to the Southern California Earthquake Catalog. We illustrate the advantages of the ETAS-I2GMM model in terms of both goodness of fit of the intensity and recovery of fault line clusters in the Community Fault Model 3.0 from earthquake occurrence data.