Browsing by Subject "Risk stratification"
Now showing 1 - 10 of 14
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item A genetic risk score and diabetes predict development of alcohol-related cirrhosis in drinkers(Elsevier, 2022) Whitfield, John B.; Schwantes-An, Tae-Hwi; Darlay, Rebecca; Aithal, Guruprasad P.; Atkinson, Stephen R.; Bataller, Ramon; Botwin, Greg; Chalasani, Naga P.; Cordell, Heather J.; Daly, Ann K.; Day, Christopher P.; Eyer, Florian; Foroud, Tatiana; Gleeson, Dermot; Goldman, David; Haber, Paul S.; Jacquet, Jean-Marc; Liang, Tiebing; Liangpunsakul, Suthat; Masson, Steven; Mathurin, Philippe; Moirand, Romain; McQuillin, Andrew; Moreno, Christophe; Morgan, Marsha Y.; Mueller, Sebastian; Müllhaupt, Beat; Nagy, Laura E.; Nahon, Pierre; Nalpas, Bertrand; Naveau, Sylvie; Perney, Pascal; Pirmohamed, Munir; Seitz, Helmut K.; Soyka, Michael; Stickel, Felix; Thompson, Andrew; Thursz, Mark R.; Trépo, Eric; Morgan, Timothy R.; Seth, Devanshi; GenomALC Consortium; Medical and Molecular Genetics, School of MedicineBackground & aims: Only a minority of excess alcohol drinkers develop cirrhosis. We developed and evaluated risk stratification scores to identify those at highest risk. Methods: Three cohorts (GenomALC-1: n = 1,690, GenomALC-2: n = 3,037, UK Biobank: relevant n = 6,898) with a history of heavy alcohol consumption (≥80 g/day (men), ≥50 g/day (women), for ≥10 years) were included. Cases were participants with alcohol-related cirrhosis. Controls had a history of similar alcohol consumption but no evidence of liver disease. Risk scores were computed from up to 8 genetic loci identified previously as associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis and 3 clinical risk factors. Score performance for the stratification of alcohol-related cirrhosis risk was assessed and compared across the alcohol-related liver disease spectrum, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Results: A combination of 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (PNPLA3:rs738409, SUGP1-TM6SF2:rs10401969, HSD17B13:rs6834314) and diabetes status best discriminated cirrhosis risk. The odds ratios (ORs) and (95% CIs) between the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q5) score quintiles of the 3-SNP score, based on independent allelic effect size estimates, were 5.99 (4.18-8.60) (GenomALC-1), 2.81 (2.03-3.89) (GenomALC-2), and 3.10 (2.32-4.14) (UK Biobank). Patients with diabetes and high risk scores had ORs of 14.7 (7.69-28.1) (GenomALC-1) and 17.1 (11.3-25.7) (UK Biobank) compared to those without diabetes and with low risk scores. Patients with cirrhosis and HCC had significantly higher mean risk scores than patients with cirrhosis alone (0.76 ± 0.06 vs. 0.61 ± 0.02, p = 0.007). Score performance was not significantly enhanced by information on additional genetic risk variants, body mass index or coffee consumption. Conclusions: A risk score based on 3 genetic risk variants and diabetes status enables the stratification of heavy drinkers based on their risk of cirrhosis, allowing for the provision of earlier preventative interventions. Lay summary: Excessive chronic drinking leads to cirrhosis in some people, but so far there is no way to identify those at high risk of developing this debilitating disease. We developed a genetic risk score that can identify patients at high risk. The risk of cirrhosis is increased >10-fold with just two risk factors - diabetes and a high genetic risk score. Risk assessment using this test could enable the early and personalised management of this disease in high-risk patients.Item Current Emergency Department Disposition of Patients With Acute Heart Failure: An Opportunity for Improvement(Elsevier, 2022) Sax, Dana R.; Mark, Dustin G.; Rana, Jamal S.; Reed, Mary E.; Lindenfeld, Joann; Stevenson, Lynne W.; Storrow, Alan B.; Butler, Javed; Pang, Peter S.; Collins, Sean P.; Emergency Medicine, School of MedicineEmergency department (ED) providers play a critical role in the stabilization and diagnostic evaluation of patients presenting with acute heart failure (AHF), and EDs are key areas for establishing current best practices and future considerations for the disposition of and decision making for patients with AHF. These elements include accurate risk assessment; response to initial treatment and shared decision making concerning optimal venue of care; reframing of physicians' risk perceptions for patients presenting with AHF; exploration of alternative venues of care beyond hospitalization; population-level changes in demographics, management and outcomes of HF patients; development and testing of data-driven pathways to assist with disposition decisions in the ED; and suggested outcomes for measuring success.Item Emergency physician risk tolerance in acute heart failure is higher than previously thought and compatible with modern disposition decision instruments(Wiley, 2023) Harrison, Nicholas E.; Koester, Jami; Farmer, Annabelle; Hannon, Aidan; Jakupco, Nicholas; Nanagas, Jill; Park, Seho; Li, Xiaochun; Collins, Sean; Monahan, Patrick; Pang, Peter S.; Emergency Medicine, School of MedicineItem Heparin-Binding Protein Stratifies Mortality Risk Among Ugandan Children Hospitalized With Respiratory Distress(Oxford University Press, 2024-07-08) Mishra, Hridesh; Balanza, Núria; Francis, Caroline; Zhong, Kathleen; Wright, Julie; Conroy, Andrea L.; Opoka, Robert O.; Bassat, Quique; Namasopo, Sophie; Kain, Kevin C.; Hawkes, Michael T.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineBackground: Current prognostic tools do not reliably and objectively identify children with pneumonia at risk of a severe or life-threatening episode. Heparin-binding protein (HBP) is a host immune protein that is released in response to infection. We hypothesized that measuring HBP concentrations at hospital admission could help risk-stratify children with pneumonia and identify those at higher risk of an adverse prognosis. Methods: We evaluated the prognostic accuracy of HBP for predicting in-hospital mortality among children with respiratory distress, and whether HBP could improve the accuracy of validated composite clinical severity scores. Results: Of 778 Ugandan children under 5 years of age and presenting with clinically defined pneumonia, 60 (7.7%) died during hospital admission. HBP concentrations at presentation were significantly higher in children with fatal outcomes (median, 76 ng/mL [interquartile range {IQR}, 41-150]) compared to children who survived (median, 31 ng/mL [IQR, 18-57]) (P < .001). Children with HBP >41 ng/mL on admission had an elevated risk of death (hazard ratio, 5.3 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.9-9.5]; P < .0001). In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, HBP concentrations distinguished between fatal and nonfatal outcomes (area under the ROC curve, 0.75 [95% CI, .66-.84]) and significantly improved the prediction provided by the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children, a composite clinical severity score (P = .0026). Conclusions: Measuring HBP at presentation could help identify children at risk of severe and fatal pneumonia. Adding HBP to clinical scores could improve the recognition and triage of children with pneumonia at risk of death.Item Identifying transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients at high-risk of adverse outcomes: development and validation of an approach using electronic health record data(BMC, 2022-07-12) Myers, Laura J.; Perkins, Anthony J.; Zhang, Ying; Bravata, Dawn M.; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground: Risk-stratification tools that have been developed to identify transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients at risk of recurrent vascular events typically include factors which are not readily available in electronic health record systems. Our objective was to evaluate two TIA risk stratification approaches using electronic health record data. Methods: Patients with TIA who were cared for in Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals (October 2015-September 2018) were included. The six outcomes were mortality, recurrent ischemic stroke, and the combined endpoint of stroke or death at 90-days and 1-year post-index TIA event. The cohort was split into development and validation samples. We examined the risk stratification of two scores constructed using electronic health record data. The Clinical Assessment Needs (CAN) score is a validated measure of risk of hospitalization or death. The PREVENT score was developed specifically for TIA risk stratification. Results: A total of N = 5250 TIA patients were included in the derivation sample and N = 4248 in the validation sample. The PREVENT score had higher c-statistics than the CAN score across all outcomes in both samples. Within the validation sample the c-statistics for the PREVENT score were: 0.847 for 90-day mortality, 0.814 for 1-year mortality, 0.665 for 90-day stroke, and 0.653 for 1-year stroke, 0.699 for 90-day stroke or death, and 0.744 for 1-year stroke or death. The PREVENT score classified patients into categories with extreme nadir and zenith outcome rates. The observed 1-year mortality rate among validation patients was 7.1%; the PREVENT score lowest decile of patients had 0% mortality and the highest decile group had 30.4% mortality. Conclusions: The PREVENT score had strong c-statistics for the mortality outcomes and classified patients into distinct risk categories. Learning healthcare systems could implement TIA risk stratification tools within electronic health records to support ongoing quality improvement.Item A National Survey of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Practices Following Liver Transplantation(Wolters Kluwer, 2020-12-08) Aggarwal, Avin; Te, Helen S.; Verna, Elizabeth C.; Desai, Archita P.; Medicine, School of MedicineRecurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important predictor of survival after liver transplantation (LT). Recent studies show that early diagnosis, aggressive treatment, and surveillance may improve outcomes after HCC recurrence. We sought to determine the current practices and policies regarding surveillance for HCC recurrence after LT. Methods: We conducted a web-based national survey of adult liver transplant centers in the United States to capture center-specific details of HCC surveillance post-LT. Responses were analyzed to generate numerical and graphical summaries. Results: Of 101 eligible adult liver transplant centers, 48 (48%) centers across the United States responded to the survey. Among the participating centers, 79% stratified transplant recipients for HCC recurrence risk, while 19% did not have any risk stratification protocol. Explant microvascular invasion (mVI) was the most common factor used in risk stratification. Use of pretransplant serum biomarkers such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was variable, with only 48% of the participating centers reporting specific "cutoff" values. While a majority of centers (88%) reported having a routine imaging protocol for HCC recurrence surveillance, there was considerable heterogeneity in terms of frequency and duration of such surveillance. Of the centers that did risk stratify patients to identify those at higher risk of HCC recurrence, about 50% did not change their surveillance protocol. Conclusions: Our study affirms significant variability in center practices, and our results reflect the need for high-quality studies to guide risk stratification and surveillance for HCC recurrence.Item A New Prognostic Model Covering All Stages of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma(Xia & He Publishing, 2022) Zhou, Shuang-Nan; Lu, Shan-Shan; Ju, Da-Wei; Yu, Ling-Xiang; Liang, Xiao-Xiao; Xiang, Xiao; Liangpunsakul, Suthat; Roberts, Lewis R.; Lu, Yin-Ying; Zhang, Ning; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground and aims: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second most common primary hepatic malignancy that causes a poor survival. We aimed to identify its prognostic factors and to develop a nomogram that will predict survival of ICC patients among all stages. Methods: A total of 442 patients with pathology-proven ICC registered at the Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital between July 2007 and December 2019 were enrolled. Subjects were followed for survival status until June 30, 2020. A prognostic model visualized as a nomogram was constructed in the training cohort using multivariate cox model, and was then validated in the validation cohort. Results: The median age was 55 years. With a median follow-up of 50.4 months, 337 patients died. The median survival was 11.6 months, with 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates of 48.3%, 22.7% and 16.2%, respectively. Factors associated with overall survival were multiple tumors, lymph node involvement, vascular invasion, distant metastasis, decreased albumin, elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), decreased iron, elevated fibrinogen, elevated CA125 and elevated CA19-9. A nomogram predicting survival of ICC patients at the time of diagnosis achieved a Harrel's c-statistic of 0.758, significantly higher than the 0.582 of the TNM stage alone. Predicted median survivals of those within the low, mid and high-risk subgroups were 35.6, 12.1 and 6.2 months, respectively. Conclusions: A nomogram based on imaging data and serum biomarkers at diagnosis showed good ability to predict survival in patients with all stages of ICC. Further studies are needed to validate the prognostic capability of our new model.Item New Scoring Systems for Predicting Advanced Proximal Neoplasia in Asymptomatic Adults With or Without Knowing Distal Colorectal Findings: A Prospective, Cross-sectional Study(Wolters Kluwer, 2022) Imperiale, Thomas F.; Monahan, Patrick O.; Stump, Timothy E.; Ransohoff, David F.; Medicine, School of MedicineBackground: Models estimating risk for advanced proximal colorectal neoplasia (APN) may be used to select colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test, either prior to knowing distal colorectal findings or afterward. Current models have only fair discrimination and nearly all require knowing distal findings. Objective: Derive and test risk prediction models for APN with and without distal findings. Setting: Selected endoscopy centers within central Indiana, USA. Participants: Average-risk persons undergoing first-time screening colonoscopy. Interventions: Demographics, personal and family medical history, lifestyle factors and physical measures were linked to the most advanced finding in proximal and distal colorectal segments. For both models, logistic regression identified factors independently associated with APN on a derivation set. Based on equation coefficients, points were assigned to each factor, and risk for APN was examined for each score. Scores with comparable risks were collapsed into risk categories. Both models and their scoring systems were tested on the validation set. Main outcome: APN, defined as any adenoma or sessile serrated lesion ≥1 cm, one with villous histology or high-grade dysplasia, or CRC proximal to the descending colon. Results: Among 3025 subjects in the derivation set (mean age 57.3 ± 6.5 years; 52% women), APN prevalence was 4.5%; 2859 (94.5%) had complete data on risk factors. Independently associated with APN were age, sex, cigarette smoking, cohabitation status, metabolic syndrome, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and physical activity. This model (without distal findings) was well-calibrated (P = 0.62) and had good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.73). In low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups that comprised 21, 58 and 21% of the sample, respectively, APN risks were 1.47% (95% CI, 0.67-2.77%), 3.09% (CI, 2.31-4.04%) and 11.6% (CI, 9.10-14.4%), respectively (P < 0.0001), with no proximal CRCs in the low-risk group and 2 in the intermediate-risk group. When tested in the validation set of 1455, the model retained good metrics (calibration P = 0.85; c-statistic = 0.83), with APN risks in low- (22%), intermediate- (56%) and high-risk (22%) subgroups of 0.62% (CI, 0.08-2.23%) 2.20% (CI, 1.31-3.46%) and 13.0% (CI, 9.50-17.2%), respectively (P < 0.0001). There were no proximal CRCs in the low-risk group, and two in the intermediate-risk group. The model with distal findings performed comparably, with validation set metrics of 0.18 for calibration, 0.76 for discrimination and APN risk (% sample) in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups of 1.1 (69%), 8.3 (22%) and 22.3% (9%). Conclusion: These models stratify large proportions of average-risk persons into clinically meaningful risk groups, and could improve screening efficiency, particularly for noncolonoscopy-based programs.Item Opportunities and challenges of proteomics in pediatric patients: circulating biomarkers after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation as a successful example(Wiley, 2014-12) Paczesny, Sophie; Duncan, Christine; Jacobsohn, David; Krance, Robert; Leung, Kathryn; Carpenter, Paul; Bollard, Catherine; Renbarger, Jamie; Cooke, Kenneth; Department of Medicine, IU School of MedicineBiomarkers have the potential to improve diagnosis and prognosis, facilitate-targeted treatment, and reduce health care costs. Thus, there is great hope that biomarkers will be integrated in all clinical decisions in the near future. A decade ago, the biomarker field was launched with great enthusiasm because MS revealed that blood contains a rich library of candidate biomarkers. However, biomarker research has not yet delivered on its promise due to several limitations: (i) improper sample handling and tracking as well as limited sample availability in the pediatric population, (ii) omission of appropriate controls in original study designs, (iii) lability and low abundance of interesting biomarkers in blood, and (iv) the inability to mechanistically tie biomarker presence to disease biology. These limitations as well as successful strategies to overcome them are discussed in this review. Several advances in biomarker discovery and validation have been made in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, the current most effective tumor immunotherapy, and these could serve as examples for other conditions. This review provides fresh optimism that biomarkers clinically relevant in pediatrics are closer to being realized based on: (i) a uniform protocol for low-volume blood collection and preservation, (ii) inclusion of well-controlled independent cohorts, (iii) novel technologies and instrumentation with low analytical sensitivity, and (iv) integrated animal models for exploring potential biomarkers and targeted therapiesItem Point-of-care echocardiography of the right heart improves acute heart failure risk stratification for low-risk patients: The REED-AHF prospective study(Wiley, 2022) Harrison, Nicholas E.; Favot, Mark J.; Gowland, Laura; Lenning, Jacob; Henry, Sarah; Gupta, Sushane; Abidov, Aiden; Levy, Phillip; Ehrman, Robert; Emergency Medicine, School of MedicineObjectives: Validated acute heart failure (AHF) clinical decision instruments (CDI) insufficiently identify low-risk patients meriting consideration of outpatient treatment. While pilot data show that tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) is associated with adverse events, no AHF CDI currently incorporates point-of-care echocardiography (POCecho). We evaluated whether TAPSE adds incremental risk stratification value to an existing CDI. Methods: Prospectively enrolled patients at two urban-academic EDs had POCechos obtained before or <1 h after first intravenous diuresis, positive pressure ventilation, and/or nitroglycerin. STEMI and cardiogenic shock were excluded. AHF diagnosis was adjudicated by double-blind expert review. TAPSE, with an a priori cutoff of ≥17 mm, was our primary measure. Secondary measures included eight additional right heart and six left heart POCecho parameters. STRATIFY is a validated CDI predicting 30-day death/cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical cardiac support, intubation, new/emergent dialysis, and acute myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization in ED AHF patients. Full (STRATIFY + POCecho variable) and reduced (STRATIFY alone) logistic regression models were fit to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR), category-free net reclassification index (NRIcont ), ΔSensitivity (NRIevents ), and ΔSpecificity (NRInonevents ). Random forest assessed variable importance. To benchmark risk prediction to standard of care, ΔSensitivity and ΔSpecificity were evaluated at risk thresholds more conservative/lower than the actual outcome rate in discharged patients. Results: A total of 84/120 enrolled patients met inclusion and diagnostic adjudication criteria. Nineteen percent experiencing the primary outcome had higher STRATIFY scores compared to those event free (233 vs. 212, p = 0.009). Five right heart (TAPSE, TAPSE/PASP, TAPSE/RVDD, RV-FAC, fwRVLS) and no left heart measures improved prediction (p < 0.05) adjusted for STRATIFY. Right heart measures also had higher variable importance. TAPSE ≥ 17 mm plus STRATIFY improved prediction versus STRATIFY alone (aOR 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.91; NRIcont 0.71, 95% CI 0.22-1.19), and specificity improved by 6%-32% (p < 0.05) at risk thresholds more conservative than the standard-of-care benchmark without missing any additional events. Conclusions: TAPSE increased detection of low-risk AHF patients, after use of a validated CDI, at risk thresholds more conservative than standard of care.