Browsing by Subject "Probability"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Clinical Ultrasound Is Safe and Highly Specific for Acute Appendicitis in Moderate to High Pre-test Probability Patients
    (eScholarship, 2018-05) Corson-Knowles, Daniel; Russell, Frances M.; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Introduction: Clinical ultrasound (CUS) is highly specific for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis but is operator-dependent. The goal of this study was to determine if a heterogeneous group of emergency physicians (EP) could diagnose acute appendicitis on CUS in patients with a moderate to high pre-test probability. Methods: This was a prospective, observational study of a convenience sample of adult and pediatric patients with suspected appendicitis. Sonographers received a structured, 20-minute CUS training on appendicitis prior to patient enrollment. The presence of a dilated (>6 mm diameter), non-compressible, blind-ending tubular structure was considered a positive study. Non-visualization or indeterminate studies were considered negative. We collected pre-test probability of acute appendicitis based on a 10-point visual analog scale (moderate to high was defined as >3), and confidence in CUS interpretation. The primary objective was measured by comparing CUS findings to surgical pathology and one week follow-up. Results: We enrolled 105 patients; 76 had moderate to high pre-test probability. Of these, 24 were children. The rate of appendicitis was 36.8% in those with moderate to high pre-test probability. CUS were recorded by 33 different EPs. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of EP-performed CUS in patients with moderate to high pre-test probability were 42.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] [25-62.5%]), 97.9% (95% CI [87.5-99.8%]), 20.7 (95% CI [2.8-149.9]) and 0.58 (95% CI [0.42-0.8]), respectively. The 16 false negative scans were all interpreted as indeterminate. There was one false positive CUS diagnosis; however, the sonographer reported low confidence of 2/10. Conclusion: A heterogeneous group of EP sonographers can safely identify acute appendicitis with high specificity in patients with moderate to high pre-test probability. This data adds support for surgical consultation without further imaging beyond CUS in the appropriate clinical setting.
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    Dynamic regulation of the subunit composition of BK channels in smooth muscle
    (American Heart Association, 2017-09-01) Dick, Gregory M.; Tune, Johnathan D.; Cellular and Integrative Physiology, School of Medicine
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    Impact of and Correction for Outcome Misclassification in Cumulative Incidence Estimation
    (Public Library of Science, 2015) Bakoyannis, Giorgos; Yiannoutsos, Constantin T.; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health
    Cohort studies and clinical trials may involve multiple events. When occurrence of one of these events prevents the observance of another, the situation is called "competing risks". A useful measure in such studies is the cumulative incidence of an event, which is useful in evaluating interventions or assessing disease prognosis. When outcomes in such studies are subject to misclassification, the resulting cumulative incidence estimates may be biased. In this work, we study the mechanism of bias in cumulative incidence estimation due to outcome misclassification. We show that even moderate levels of misclassification can lead to seriously biased estimates in a frequently unpredictable manner. We propose an easy to use estimator for correcting this bias that is uniformly consistent. Extensive simulations suggest that this method leads to unbiased estimates in practical settings. The proposed method is useful, both in settings where misclassification probabilities are known by historical data or can be estimated by other means, and for performing sensitivity analyses when the misclassification probabilities are not precisely known.