Browsing by Subject "Land-use change"

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    Impact of Climate Change on Global Agricultural Markets under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    (Wiley, 2021) Dumortier, Jerome; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
    This analysis quantifies changesin global agricultural markets for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to yield changes triggered by climate change. The scenarios include four representative concentration pathways (RCP), five global climate models, three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) capturing differences in population levels and economic growth, and enhanced COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0001-fertilization. Yield projections incorporate the influence of SSPs on nitrogen application and agricultural technology. Depending on the SSP and comparing the RCP8.5 ensemble yields (with COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0002-fertilization) to a no climate change scenario in 2050, price increases for maize (61.3%–80.9%), soybeans (36.7%–51.7%), and wheat (5.4%–11.1%) are observed. Large wheat producers in temperate regions expand wheat production under climate change. Rice benefits from COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0003 fertilization resulting in a relatively uniform price decrease across scenarios of 19.5%–19.9%. Cropland expansion between 2015 and 2050 is lowest for the high economic growth scenario. Depending on the crop and region, there are significant reductions in production especially for maize. Absolute changes in trade patterns are most pronounced for wheat and least for rice. Using trade as a means to dampen the negative welfare effects of climate change will be important and so is economic growth.
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    Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets
    (Elsevier, 2022-10) Dumortier, Jerome; Elobeid, Amani; Carriquiry, Miguel; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
    Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States (U.S.) decreases the long-term demand for maize ethanol. This analysis assesses the consequences of accelerated penetration of electric vehicles into the U.S. LDV fleet on global food production, prices, land-use, and carbon emissions. Population and income growth are framed around Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The scenarios progressively increase the 2050 sales share of electric LDVs to 100%. The results indicate a maximum price decline of 9.5% for maize and a significant increase in U.S. maize exports. The fleet electrification also leads to a decline in global cropland compared to the baseline by up to 4.4 million hectares at the end of the projection period. Mean GHG reductions in the 100% LDV sales scenario range from 39.4% to 52.0% of 2019 emissions from gasoline LDVs depending on the SSP. Thus, transportation policies supporting additional electric vehicles reduce food prices and carbon emissions.