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Item Decreasing trend of gastroschisis prevalence in the United States from 2014 through 2022: Is attributed to declining birth rates in young, high-risk gravidae(Elsevier, 2025-02-12) Mustafa, Hiba J.; Zargarzadeh, Nikan; Moss, Kevin L.; Abiad, May; Gray, Brian; Aagaard, Kjersti M.; Buchmiller, Terry L.; Perrone, Erin E.; Shamshirsaz, Alireza A.; Biostatistics and Health Data Science, Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public HealthObjectives: To investigate the prevalence trend of gastroschisis in the United States between 2014 and 2022. Methods: A cross-sectional retrospective analysis of the Centers for the United States live births between 2014 and 2022. Pregnancies and neonatal singleton live births with documented isolated gastroschisis were included. Neonates with other major congenital anomalies and known chromosomal abnormalities were excluded. Prevalence per 10,000 live births along with 95 % confidence intervals was estimated. Results: Among 32,088,301 singleton live births, 6804 cases of isolated gastroschisis were identified (Point prevalence: 2 in 10,000 live births). A significant decline in gastroschisis prevalence was observed, decreasing from 2.86 per 10,000 live births in 2014-1.55 per 10,000 live births in 2022 (P < 0.001). The risk of gastroschisis was significantly higher in teen and nulliparous gravidae, with prepregnancy tobacco use, and among socially vulnerable populations (underweight, < 12th-grade education, Medicaid, non-Hispanic Indigenous Americans). The drop in gastroschisis births from 2014 to 2022, compared to non-gastroschisis births, is more significant in maternal age < 20 years, nulliparous, BMI < 18.5, and in smokers prior to pregnancy than in the overall population (P = 0.02, 0.0008, <0.0001, <0.0001, and 0.01 respectively). All of the associated maternal factors had a significant decline in prevalence (P < 0.001), which may influence the decreasing trend of gastroschisis. There was no perceived considerable impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastroschisis trends. Conclusions: The study highlights a notable decline in gastroschisis prevalence mostly attributable to a declining birth rate in the highest at-risk strata, suggesting recent increases in birth rates among these at-risk gravidae may reverse the trend of declining gastroschisis disease prevalence. These findings support the need for ongoing further research to understand effective means of sustaining this decreasing trend.Item It Is Complex: Predicting Gastroschisis Outcomes Using Prenatal Imaging(Elsevier, 2021-02) Fisher, Sarah G.; Anderson, Cassandra M.; Steinhardt, Nicole P.; Howser, Lauren A.; Bhamidipalli, Surya S.; Brown, Brandon P.; Gray, Brian W.; Surgery, School of MedicineBACKGROUND: Gastroschisis occurs in one of 2000 births with survival rates partially contingent on intestinal complications and time to establishing feeding. Enhancements in prenatal imaging have given better insight into postnatal outcomes. The goal of this study was to examine the gastroschisis patient population at a single children's hospital in the modern era and to use prenatal ultrasound (US) to develop new prenatal prognostic indicators. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of gastroschisis patients at a quaternary-care referral children's hospital from 2010 through 2018. We recorded demographics, prenatal data and imaging, early postnatal data, operative data, and patient outcomes. We compared patients within our cohort born with complex gastroschisis (bowel atresia/perforation) to uncomplicated gastroschisis patients. Second trimester and third trimester prenatal US were evaluated for changes in amniotic fluid level, amount of external bowel, bowel dilatation, and bowel wall edema to identify prognostic indicators of the status of the bowel at birth. For categorical variables, chi-square tests were used to assess for significance. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to assess significance between categorical and continuous variables using medians and interquartile ranges or means. RESULTS: A total of 134 patients were included in the study: complex (n = 24), uncomplicated (n = 110). Compared with uncomplicated gastroschisis, complex patients required longer median days to feeding initiation (44 versus 10; P < 0.001), full feeding (80 versus 23; P < 0.001), length of stay (83 versus 33; P < 0.001), and total parenteral nutrition at discharge (P = 0.004). Full US data were available on 81% of patients, and partial data were identified on 19%. Prenatal US analysis showed significantly more complex patients had polyhydramnios on third trimester US (23.5%-4.3%; P = 0.018). US analysis showed these additional factors to be most associated with complex gastroschisis: large amount of external bowel on third trimester US, increase in bowel edema on third trimester US, and increase in external bowel dilation on third trimester US. Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed amniotic fluid on third trimester US to be the most significant predictor of complex gastroschisis (P = 0.01). Polyhydramnios in combination with two-thirds of the other US factors had both sensitivity and positive predictive value for predicting complex gastroschisis of 75%. Patients with two or less of these positive US factors had high specificity (96.8%) and negative predictive value (87.5%), suggesting uncomplicated disease. There were no differences in perioperative or long-term complications in the complex group when compared with the group with uncomplicated gastroschisis. CONCLUSIONS: Polyhydramnios on third trimester prenatal US on babies with gastroschisis can predict complex gastroschisis at birth, whereas the absence of markers on prenatal US can suggest uncomplicated disease. Complex gastroschisis is associated with increased time to feeds and length of stay.