Browsing by Subject "El Niño"

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    Factors of Concern Regarding Zika and Other Aedes aegypti-Transmitted Viruses in the United States
    (Oxford Academic, 2017-03) Moreno-Madriñán, Max J.; Turell, Michael; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health
    The recent explosive outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya throughout the Americas has raised concerns about the threats that these and similar diseases may pose to the United States (U.S.). The commonly accepted association between tropical climates and the endemicity of these diseases has led to concerns about the possibility of their redistribution due to climate change and transmission arising from cases imported from endemic regions initiating outbreaks in the United States. While such possibilities are indeed well founded, the analysis of historical records not only confirms the potential critical role of traveling and globalization but also reveals that the climate in the United States currently is suitable for local transmission of these viruses. Thus, the main factors preventing these diseases from occurring in the United States today are more likely socioeconomic such as lifestyle, housing infrastructure, and good sanitation. As long as such conditions are maintained, it seems unlikely that local transmission will occur to any great degree, particularly in the northern states. Indeed, a contributing factor to explain the current endemicity of these diseases in less-developed American countries may be well explained by socioeconomic and some lifestyle characteristics in such countries.
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    Spatial‐Temporal Assessment of Environmental Factors Related to Dengue Outbreaks in São Paulo, Brazil
    (Wiley, 2019-08) Ogashawara, I.; Li, L.; Moreno-Madriñán, M. J.; Environmental Health Science, School of Public Health
    Dengue fever, a disease caused by a vector‐borne flavivirus, is endemic to tropical countries, but its occurrence has been reported worldwide. This study aimed to understand important factors contributing to the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue occurrence in São Paulo, the largest municipality of Brazil. The temporal assessment of dengue occurrence covered the 2011–2016 time period and was based on climatological data, such as the El Niño indices and time series statistical tools such as the continuous wavelet transformation. The spatial assessment used Landsat 8 data for years 2014–2016 to estimate land surface temperature and normalized indices for vegetation, urban areas, and leaf water. Results from a cross correlation for the temporal analysis found a relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies index and the number of reported dengue cases in São Paulo (r = 0.5) with a lag of +29 (weeks) between the climatic event and the response on the dengue incidence. This relationship, initially nonlinear, became linear after correcting for the lag period. For the spatial assessment, the linear stepwise regression model detected a low relationship between dengue incidence and minimum surface temperature (r = 0.357) and no relationship with other environmental parameters. The poor relationship might be due to confounding effects of socioeconomic factors as these seem to influence the spatial dynamics of dengue incidence. More testing is needed to validate these methods in other locations. Nevertheless, we presented possible tools to be used for the improvement of dengue control programs.