Browsing by Subject "Compartmental Models"

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    The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19
    (National Academy of Sciences, 2020-07-02) Bertozzi, Andrea L.; Franco, Elisa; Mohler, George; Short, Martin B.; Sledge, Daniel; Computer and Information Science, School of Science
    The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.