Browsing by Author "Zeng, Donglin"

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    A multistate transition model for statin‐induced myopathy and statin discontinuation
    (Wiley, 2021) Zhu, Yuxi; Chiang, Chien-Wei; Wang, Lei; Brock, Guy; Milks, M. Wesley; Cao, Weidan; Zhang, Pengyue; Zeng, Donglin; Donneyong, Macarius; Li, Lang; Biostatistics and Health Data Science, Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health
    The overarching goal of this study was to simultaneously model the dynamic relationships among statin exposure, statin discontinuation, and potentially statin-related myopathic outcomes. We extracted data from the Indiana Network of Patient Care for 134,815 patients who received statin therapy between January 4, 2004, and December 31, 2008. All individuals began statin treatment, some discontinued statin use, and some experienced myopathy and/or rhabdomyolysis while taking the drug or after discontinuation. We developed a militate model to characterize 12 transition probabilities among six different states defined by use or discontinuation of statin and its associated myopathy or rhabdomyolysis. We found that discontinuation of statin therapy was common and frequently early, with 44.4% of patients discontinuing therapy after 1 month, and discontinuation is a strong indicator for statin-induced myopathy (risk ratio, 10.8; p < 0.05). Women more likely than men (p < 0.05) and patients aged 65 years and older had a higher risk than those aged younger than 65 years to discontinue statin use or experience myopathy. In conclusion, we introduce an innovative multistate model that allows clear depiction of the relationship between statin discontinuation and statin-induced myopathy. For the first time, we have successfully demonstrated and quantified the relative risk of myopathy between patients who continued and discontinued statin therapy. Age and sex were two strong risk factors for both statin discontinuation and incident myopathy.
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    Anxiety sensitivity as a transdiagnostic risk factor for trajectories of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the AURORA study
    (Elsevier, 2022-12) Short , Nicole A.; van Rooij , Sanne J. H.; Murty, Vishnu P.; Stevens, Jennifer S.; An , Xinming; Ji , Yinyao; McLean , Samuel A.; House , Stacey L.; Beaudoin, Francesca L.; Zeng, Donglin; Neylan, Thomas C.; Clifford, Gari D.; Linnstaedt, Sarah D.; Germine, Laura T.; Bollen, Kenneth A.; Rauch , Scott L.; Haran , John P.; Lewandowski, Christopher; Musey Jr., Paul I.; Hendry , Phyllis L.; Sheikh , Sophia; Jones , Christopher W.; Punches, Brittany E.; Swor , Robert A.; McGrath , Meghan E.; Hudak , Lauren A.; Pascual , Jose L.; Seamon , Mark J.; Datner , Elizabeth M.; Pearson , Claire; Peak , David A.; Merchant , Roland C.; Domeier , Robert M.; Rathlev, Niels K.; O'Neil, Brian J.; Sergot, Paulina; Sanchez, Leon D.; Bruce, Steven E.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Joormann, Jutta; Barch, Deanna M.; Pizzagalli , Diego A.; Sheridan, John F.; Smoller, Jordan W.; Harte, Steven E.; Elliott, James M.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Koenen, Karestan C .; Jovanovic , Tanja; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Anxiety sensitivity, or fear of anxious arousal, is cross-sectionally associated with a wide array of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae, including symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatization. The current study utilizes a large-scale, multi-site, prospective study of trauma survivors presenting to emergency departments. Hypotheses tested whether elevated anxiety sensitivity in the immediate posttrauma period is associated with more severe and persistent trajectories of common adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the eight weeks posttrauma. Participants from the AURORA study (n = 2,269 recruited from 23 emergency departments) completed self-report assessments over eight weeks posttrauma. Associations between heightened anxiety sensitivity and more severe and/or persistent trajectories of trauma-related symptoms identified by growth mixture modeling were analyzed. Anxiety sensitivity assessed two weeks posttrauma was associated with severe and/or persistent posttraumatic stress, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatic symptoms in the eight weeks posttrauma. Effect sizes were in the small to medium range in multivariate models accounting for various demographic, trauma-related, pre-trauma mental health-related, and personality-related factors. Anxiety sensitivity may be a useful transdiagnostic risk factor in the immediate posttraumatic period identifying individuals at risk for the development of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae. Further, considering anxiety sensitivity is malleable via brief intervention, it could be a useful secondary prevention target. Future research should continue to evaluate associations between anxiety sensitivity and trauma-related pathology.
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    Association between microbiome and the development of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae after traumatic stress exposure
    (Springer Nature, 2023-11-18) Zeamer, Abigail L.; Salive, Marie-Claire; An, Xinming; Beaudoin, Francesca L.; House, Stacey L.; Stevens, Jennifer S.; Zeng, Donglin; Neylan, Thomas C.; Clifford, Gari D.; Linnstaedt, Sarah D.; Rauch, Scott L.; Storrow, Alan B.; Lewandowski, Christopher; Musey, Paul I., Jr.; Hendry, Phyllis L.; Sheikh, Sophia; Jones, Christopher W.; Punches, Brittany E.; Swor, Robert A.; Hudak, Lauren A.; Pascual, Jose L.; Seamon, Mark J.; Harris, Erica; Pearson, Claire; Peak, David A.; Merchant, Roland C.; Domeier, Robert M.; Rathlev, Niels K.; O’Neil, Brian J.; Sergot, Paulina; Sanchez, Leon D.; Bruce, Steven E.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Koenen, Karestan C.; McLean, Samuel A.; Bucci, Vanni; Haran, John P.; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Patients exposed to trauma often experience high rates of adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS). The biological mechanisms promoting APNS are currently unknown, but the microbiota-gut-brain axis offers an avenue to understanding mechanisms as well as possibilities for intervention. Microbiome composition after trauma exposure has been poorly examined regarding neuropsychiatric outcomes. We aimed to determine whether the gut microbiomes of trauma-exposed emergency department patients who develop APNS have dysfunctional gut microbiome profiles and discover potential associated mechanisms. We performed metagenomic analysis on stool samples (n = 51) from a subset of adults enrolled in the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA (AURORA) study. Two-, eight- and twelve-week post-trauma outcomes for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (PTSD checklist for DSM-5), normalized depression scores (PROMIS Depression Short Form 8b) and somatic symptom counts were collected. Generalized linear models were created for each outcome using microbial abundances and relevant demographics. Mixed-effect random forest machine learning models were used to identify associations between APNS outcomes and microbial features and encoded metabolic pathways from stool metagenomics. Microbial species, including Flavonifractor plautii, Ruminococcus gnavus and, Bifidobacterium species, which are prevalent commensal gut microbes, were found to be important in predicting worse APNS outcomes from microbial abundance data. Notably, through APNS outcome modeling using microbial metabolic pathways, worse APNS outcomes were highly predicted by decreased L-arginine related pathway genes and increased citrulline and ornithine pathways. Common commensal microbial species are enriched in individuals who develop APNS. More notably, we identified a biological mechanism through which the gut microbiome reduces global arginine bioavailability, a metabolic change that has also been demonstrated in the plasma of patients with PTSD.
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    Associations of Alcohol and Cannabis Use with Change in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Depression Symptoms Over Time in Recently Trauma-exposed Individuals
    (Cambridge University Press, 2024) Hinojosa, Cecilia A.; Liew, Amanda; An, Xinming; Stevens, Jennifer S.; Basu, Archana; van Rooij, Sanne J. H.; House, Stacey L.; Beaudoin, Francesca L.; Zeng, Donglin; Neylan, Thomas C.; Clifford, Gari D.; Jovanovic, Tanja; Linnstaedt, Sarah D.; Germine, Laura T.; Rauch, Scott L.; Haran, John P.; Storrow, Alan B.; Lewandowski, Christopher; Musey, Paul I.; Hendry, Phyllis L.; Sheikh, Sophia; Jones, Christopher W.; Punches, Brittany E.; Kurz, Michael C.; Swor, Robert A.; Hudak, Lauren A.; Pascual, Jose L.; Seamon, Mark J.; Datner, Elizabeth M.; Chang, Anna M.; Pearson, Claire; Peak, David A.; Merchant, Roland C.; Domeier, Robert M.; Rathlev, Niels K.; Sergot, Paulina; Sanchez, Leon D.; Bruce, Steven E.; Miller, Mark W.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Joormann, Jutta; Pizzagalli, Diego A.; Sheridan, John F.; Harte, Steven E.; Elliott, James M.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Koenen, Karestan C.; McLean, Samuel A.; Ressler, Kerry J.; Fani, Negar; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Background: Several hypotheses may explain the association between substance use, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and depression. However, few studies have utilized a large multisite dataset to understand this complex relationship. Our study assessed the relationship between alcohol and cannabis use trajectories and PTSD and depression symptoms across 3 months in recently trauma-exposed civilians. Methods: In total, 1618 (1037 female) participants provided self-report data on past 30-day alcohol and cannabis use and PTSD and depression symptoms during their emergency department (baseline) visit. We reassessed participant's substance use and clinical symptoms 2, 8, and 12 weeks posttrauma. Latent class mixture modeling determined alcohol and cannabis use trajectories in the sample. Changes in PTSD and depression symptoms were assessed across alcohol and cannabis use trajectories via a mixed-model repeated-measures analysis of variance. Results: Three trajectory classes (low, high, increasing use) provided the best model fit for alcohol and cannabis use. The low alcohol use class exhibited lower PTSD symptoms at baseline than the high use class; the low cannabis use class exhibited lower PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline than the high and increasing use classes; these symptoms greatly increased at week 8 and declined at week 12. Participants who already use alcohol and cannabis exhibited greater PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline that increased at week 8 with a decrease in symptoms at week 12. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that alcohol and cannabis use trajectories are associated with the intensity of posttrauma psychopathology. These findings could potentially inform the timing of therapeutic strategies.
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    The AURORA Study: A Longitudinal, Multimodal Library of Brain Biology and Function after Traumatic Stress Exposure
    (Springer Nature, 2020-02) McLean, Samuel A.; Ressler, Kerry; Koenen, Karestan Chase; Neylan, Thomas; Germine, Laura; Jovanovic, Tanja; Clifford, Gari D.; Zeng, Donglin; An, Xinming; Linnstaedt, Sarah; Beaudoin, Francesca; House, Stacey; Bollen, Kenneth A.; Musey, Paul; Hendry, Phyllis; Jones, Christopher W.; Lewandowski, Christopher; Swor, Robert; Datner, Elizabeth; Mohiuddin, Kamran; Stevens, Jennifer S.; Storrow, Alan; Kurz, Michael Christopher; McGrath, Meghan E.; Fermann, Gregory J.; Hudak, Lauren A.; Gentile, Nina; Chang, Anna Marie; Peak, David A.; Pascual, Jose L.; Seamon, Mark J.; Sergot, Paulina; Peacock, W. Frank; Diercks, Deborah; Sanchez, Leon D.; Rathlev, Niels; Domeier, Robert; Haran, John Patrick; Pearson, Claire; Murty, Vishnu P.; Insel, Thomas R.; Dagum, Paul; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Bruce, Steven E.; Gaynes, Bradley N.; Joormann, Jutta; Miller, Mark W.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Buysse, Daniel J.; Pizzagalli, Diego A.; Rauch, Scott L.; Harte, Steven E.; Young, Larry J.; Barch, Deanna M.; Lebois, Lauren A. M.; van Rooij, Sanne J. H.; Luna, Beatriz; Smoller, Jordan W.; Dougherty, Robert F.; Pace, Thaddeus W. W.; Binder, Elisabeth; Sheridan, John F.; Elliott, James M.; Basu, Archana; Fromer, Menachem; Parlikar, Tushar; Zaslavsky, Alan M.; Kessler, Ronald; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) are common among civilian trauma survivors and military veterans. These APNS, as traditionally classified, include posttraumatic stress, postconcussion syndrome, depression, and regional or widespread pain. Traditional classifications have come to hamper scientific progress because they artificially fragment APNS into siloed, syndromic diagnoses unmoored to discrete components of brain functioning and studied in isolation. These limitations in classification and ontology slow the discovery of pathophysiologic mechanisms, biobehavioral markers, risk prediction tools, and preventive/treatment interventions. Progress in overcoming these limitations has been challenging because such progress would require studies that both evaluate a broad spectrum of posttraumatic sequelae (to overcome fragmentation) and also perform in-depth biobehavioral evaluation (to index sequelae to domains of brain function). This article summarizes the methods of the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA (AURORA) Study. AURORA conducts a large-scale (n = 5000 target sample) in-depth assessment of APNS development using a state-of-the-art battery of self-report, neurocognitive, physiologic, digital phenotyping, psychophysical, neuroimaging, and genomic assessments, beginning in the early aftermath of trauma and continuing for 1 year. The goals of AURORA are to achieve improved phenotypes, prediction tools, and understanding of molecular mechanisms to inform the future development and testing of preventive and treatment interventions.
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    Brain-Based Biotypes of Psychiatric Vulnerability in the Acute Aftermath of Trauma
    (American Psychiatric Association, 2021) Stevens, Jennifer S.; Harnett, Nathaniel G.; Lebois, Lauren A.M.; van Rooij, Sanne J.H.; Ely, Timothy D.; Roeckner, Alyssa; Vincent, Nico; Beaudoin, Francesca L.; An, Xinming; Zeng, Donglin; Neylan, Thomas C.; Clifford, Gari D.; Linnstaedt, Sarah D.; Germine, Laura T.; Rauch, Scott L.; Lewandowski, Christopher; Storrow, Alan B.; Hendry, Phyllis L.; Sheikh, Sophia; Musey, Paul I., Jr.; Haran, John P.; Jones, Christopher W.; Punches, Brittany E.; Lyons, Michael S.; Kurz, Michael C.; McGrath, Meghan E.; Pascual, Jose L.; Datner, Elizabeth M.; Chang, Anna M.; Pearson, Claire; Peak, David A.; Domeier, Robert M.; O'Neil, Brian J.; Rathlev, Niels K.; Sanchez, Leon D.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Joormann, Jutta; Barch, Deanna M.; Pizzagalli, Diego A.; Sheridan, John F.; Luna, Beatriz; Harte, Steven E.; Elliott, James M.; Murty, Vishnu P.; Jovanovic, Tanja; Bruce, Steven E.; House, Stacey L.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Koenen, Karestan C.; McLean, Samuel A.; Ressler, Kerry J.; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Objective: Major negative life events, such as trauma exposure, can play a key role in igniting or exacerbating psychopathology. However, few disorders are diagnosed with respect to precipitating events, and the role of these events in the unfolding of new psychopathology is not well understood. The authors conducted a multisite transdiagnostic longitudinal study of trauma exposure and related mental health outcomes to identify neurobiological predictors of risk, resilience, and different symptom presentations. Methods: A total of 146 participants (discovery cohort: N=69; internal replication cohort: N=77) were recruited from emergency departments within 72 hours of a trauma and followed for the next 6 months with a survey, MRI, and physiological assessments. Results: Task-based functional MRI 2 weeks after a motor vehicle collision identified four clusters of individuals based on profiles of neural activity reflecting threat reactivity, reward reactivity, and inhibitory engagement. Three clusters were replicated in an independent sample with a variety of trauma types. The clusters showed different longitudinal patterns of posttrauma symptoms. Conclusions: These findings provide a novel characterization of heterogeneous stress responses shortly after trauma exposure, identifying potential neuroimaging-based biotypes of trauma resilience and psychopathology.
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    Classification and Prediction of Post-Trauma Outcomes Related to PTSD Using Circadian Rhythm Changes Measured via Wrist-Worn Research Watch in a Large Longitudinal Cohort
    (IEEE, 2021) Cakmak, Ayse S.; Perez Alday, Erick A.; Da Poian, Giulia; Rad, Ali Bahrami; Metzler, Thomas J.; Neylan, Thomas C.; House, Stacey L.; Beaudoin, Francesca L.; An, Xinming; Stevens, Jennifer S.; Zeng, Donglin; Linnstaedt, Sarah D.; Jovanovic, Tanja; Germine, Laura T.; Bollen, Kenneth A.; Rauch, Scott L.; Lewandowski, Christopher A.; Hendry, Phyllis L.; Sheikh, Sophia; Storrow, Alan B.; Musey, Paul I., Jr.; Haran, John P.; Jones, Christopher W.; Punches, Brittany E.; Swor, Robert A.; Gentile, Nina T.; McGrath, Meghan E.; Seamon, Mark J.; Mohiuddin, Kamran; Chang, Anna M.; Pearson, Claire; Domeier, Robert M.; Bruce, Steven E.; O’Neil, Brian J.; Rathlev, Niels K.; Sanchez, Leon D.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Joormann, Jutta; Barch, Deanna M.; Pizzagalli, Diego A.; Harte, Steven E.; Elliott, James M.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Ressler, Kerry J.; Mclean, Samuel A.; Li, Qiao; Clifford, Gari D.; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is a psychiatric condition resulting from threatening or horrifying events. We hypothesized that circadian rhythm changes, measured by a wrist-worn research watch are predictive of post-trauma outcomes. Approach: 1618 post-trauma patients were enrolled after admission to emergency departments (ED). Three standardized questionnaires were administered at week eight to measure post-trauma outcomes related to PTSD, sleep disturbance, and pain interference with daily life. Pulse activity and movement data were captured from a research watch for eight weeks. Standard and novel movement and cardiovascular metrics that reflect circadian rhythms were derived using this data. These features were used to train different classifiers to predict the three outcomes derived from week-eight surveys. Clinical surveys administered at ED were also used as features in the baseline models. Results: The highest cross-validated performance of research watch-based features was achieved for classifying participants with pain interference by a logistic regression model, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.70. The ED survey-based model achieved an AUC of 0.77, and the fusion of research watch and ED survey metrics improved the AUC to 0.79. Significance: This work represents the first attempt to predict and classify post-trauma symptoms from passive wearable data using machine learning approaches that leverage the circadian desynchrony in a potential PTSD population.
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    Derivation and Validation of a Brief Emergency Department-Based Prediction Tool for Posttraumatic Stress After Motor Vehicle Collision
    (Elsevier, 2023) Jones, Christopher W.; An, Xinming; Ji, Yinyao; Liu, Mochuan; Zeng, Donglin; House, Stacey L.; Beaudoin, Francesca L.; Stevens, Jennifer S.; Neylan, Thomas C.; Clifford, Gari D.; Jovanovic, Tanja; Linnstaedt, Sarah D.; Germine, Laura T.; Bollen, Kenneth A.; Rauch, Scott L.; Haran, John P.; Storrow, Alan B.; Lewandowski, Christopher; Musey, Paul I., Jr.; Hendry, Phyllis L.; Sheikh, Sophia; Punches, Brittany E.; Lyons, Michael S.; Kurz, Michael C.; Swor, Robert A.; McGrath, Meghan E.; Hudak, Lauren A.; Pascual, Jose L.; Seamon, Mark J.; Datner, Elizabeth M.; Harris, Erica; Chang, Anna M.; Pearson, Claire; Peak, David A.; Merchant, Roland C.; Domeier, Robert M.; Rathlev, Niels K.; O'Neil, Brian J.; Sergot, Paulina; Sanchez, Leon D.; Bruce, Steven E.; Miller, Mark W.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Joormann, Jutta; Barch, Deanna M.; Pizzagalli, Diego A.; Sheridan, John F.; Smoller, Jordan W.; Harte, Steven E.; Elliott, James M.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Ressler, Kerry J.; Kessler, Ronald C.; McLean, Samuel A.; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Study objective: To derive and initially validate a brief bedside clinical decision support tool that identifies emergency department (ED) patients at high risk of substantial, persistent posttraumatic stress symptoms after a motor vehicle collision. Methods: Derivation (n=1,282, 19 ED sites) and validation (n=282, 11 separate ED sites) data were obtained from adults prospectively enrolled in the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA study who were discharged from the ED after motor vehicle collision-related trauma. The primary outcome was substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms at 3 months (Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 ≥38). Logistic regression derivation models were evaluated for discriminative ability using the area under the curve and the accuracy of predicted risk probabilities (Brier score). Candidate posttraumatic stress predictors assessed in these models (n=265) spanned a range of sociodemographic, baseline health, peritraumatic, and mechanistic domains. The final model selection was based on performance and ease of administration. Results: Significant 3-month posttraumatic stress symptoms were common in the derivation (27%) and validation (26%) cohort. The area under the curve and Brier score of the final 8-question tool were 0.82 and 0.14 in the derivation cohort and 0.76 and 0.17 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: This simple 8-question tool demonstrates promise to risk-stratify individuals with substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms who are discharged to home after a motor vehicle collision. Both external validation of this instrument, and work to further develop more accurate tools, are needed. Such tools might benefit public health by enabling the conduct of preventive intervention trials and assisting the growing number of EDs that provide services to trauma survivors aimed at promoting psychological recovery.
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    Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Major Depression After a Motor Vehicle Collision
    (American Medical Association, 2021) Ziobrowski, Hannah N.; Kennedy, Chris J.; Ustun, Berk; House, Stacey L.; Beaudoin, Francesca L.; An, Xinming; Zeng, Donglin; Bollen, Kenneth A.; Petukhova, Maria; Sampson, Nancy A.; Puac-Polanco, Victor; Lee, Sue; Koenen, Karestan C.; Ressler, Kerry J.; McLean, Samuel A.; Kessler, Ronald C.; AURORA Consortium; Stevens, Jennifer S.; Neylan, Thomas C.; Clifford, Gari D.; Jovanovic, Tanja; Linnstaedt, Sarah D.; Germine, Laura T.; Rauch, Scott L.; Haran, John P.; Storrow, Alan B.; Lewandowski, Christopher; Musey, Paul I., Jr.; Hendry, Phyllis L.; Sheikh, Sophia; Jones, Christopher W.; Punches, Brittany E.; Lyons, Michael S.; Murty, Vishnu P.; McGrath, Meghan E.; Pascual, Jose L.; Seamon, Mark J.; Datner, Elizabeth M.; Chang, Anna M.; Pearson, Claire; Peak, David A.; Jambaulikar, Guruprasad; Merchant, Roland C.; Domeier, Robert M.; Rathlev, Niels K.; O'Neil, Brian J.; Sergot, Paulina; Sanchez, Leon D.; Bruce, Steven E.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Joormann, Jutta; Barch, Deanna M.; Pizzagalli, Diego A.; Sheridan, John F.; Harte, Steven E.; Elliott, James M.; van Rooij, Sanne J.H.; Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine
    Importance: A substantial proportion of the 40 million people in the US who present to emergency departments (EDs) each year after traumatic events develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or major depressive episode (MDE). Accurately identifying patients at high risk in the ED would facilitate the targeting of preventive interventions. Objectives: To develop and validate a prediction tool based on ED reports after a motor vehicle collision to predict PTSD or MDE 3 months later. Design, setting, and participants: The Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study is a longitudinal study that examined adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequalae among patients who presented to 28 US urban EDs in the immediate aftermath of a traumatic experience. Enrollment began on September 25, 2017. The 1003 patients considered in this diagnostic/prognostic report completed 3-month assessments by January 31, 2020. Each patient received a baseline ED assessment along with follow-up self-report surveys 2 weeks, 8 weeks, and 3 months later. An ensemble machine learning method was used to predict 3-month PTSD or MDE from baseline information. Data analysis was performed from November 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. Main outcomes and measures: The PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 was used to assess PTSD and the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Depression Short-Form 8b to assess MDE. Results: A total of 1003 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 34.5 [24-43] years; 715 [weighted 67.9%] female; 100 [weighted 10.7%] Hispanic, 537 [weighted 52.7%] non-Hispanic Black, 324 [weighted 32.2%] non-Hispanic White, and 42 [weighted 4.4%] of non-Hispanic other race or ethnicity were included in this study. A total of 274 patients (weighted 26.6%) met criteria for 3-month PTSD or MDE. An ensemble machine learning model restricted to 30 predictors estimated in a training sample (patients from the Northeast or Midwest) had good prediction accuracy (mean [SE] area under the curve [AUC], 0.815 [0.031]) and calibration (mean [SE] integrated calibration index, 0.040 [0.002]; mean [SE] expected calibration error, 0.039 [0.002]) in an independent test sample (patients from the South). Patients in the top 30% of predicted risk accounted for 65% of all 3-month PTSD or MDE, with a mean (SE) positive predictive value of 58.2% (6.4%) among these patients at high risk. The model had good consistency across regions of the country in terms of both AUC (mean [SE], 0.789 [0.025] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.809 [0.023] using the Midwest as the test sample) and calibration (mean [SE] integrated calibration index, 0.048 [0.003] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.024 [0.001] using the Midwest as the test sample; mean [SE] expected calibration error, 0.034 [0.003] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.025 [0.001] using the Midwest as the test sample). The most important predictors in terms of Shapley Additive Explanations values were symptoms of anxiety sensitivity and depressive disposition, psychological distress in the 30 days before motor vehicle collision, and peritraumatic psychosomatic symptoms. Conclusions and relevance: The results of this study suggest that a short set of questions feasible to administer in an ED can predict 3-month PTSD or MDE with good AUC, calibration, and geographic consistency. Patients at high risk can be identified in the ED for targeting if cost-effective preventive interventions are developed.
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    Estimating causal log-odds ratio using the case-control sample and its application in the pharmaco-epidemiology study
    (Sage, 2018) Zhu, Anqi; Zeng, Donglin; Zhang, Pengyue; Li, Lang; Medical and Molecular Genetics, School of Medicine
    One important goal in pharmaco-epidemiology studies is to understand the causal relationship between drug exposures and their clinical outcomes, including adverse drug events. In order to achieve this goal, however, we need to resolve several challenges. Most of pharmaco-epidemiology data are observational and confounding is largely present due to many co-medications. The pharmaco-epidemiology study data set is often sampled from large medical record databases using a matched case-control design, and it may not be representative of the original patient population in the medical record databases. Data analysis method needs to handle a large sample size that cannot be handled using existing statistical analysis packages. In this paper, we tackle these challenges both methodologically and computationally. We propose a conditional causal log-odds ratio (OR) definition to characterize causal effects of drug exposures on a binary adverse drug event adjusting for individual level confounders. Using a case-control design, we present a propensity score estimation using only case samples and we provide sufficient conditions for the consistency of the estimation of the causal log-odds ratio using case-based propensity scores. Computationally, we implement a principle component analysis to reduce high-dimensional confounders. Extensive simulation studies are performed to demonstrate superior performance of our method to existing methods. Finally, we apply the proposed method to analyze drug-induced myopathy data sampled from a de-identified subset of medical record database (close to 5 million patient records), The Indiana Network for Patient Care. Our method identified 70 drug-induced myopathy (p < 0.05) out 72 drugs, which have myoathy side effects on their FDA drug labels. These 70 drugs include three statins who are known for their myopathy side effects.