Browsing by Author "Sharma, Shilpa"

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    The resurgence of monkeypox: Epidemiology, clinical features, and public health implications in the post-smallpox eradication era
    (Elsevier, 2024-09-24) Singh, Parminder; Sridhar, Sathvik Belagodu; Shareef, Javedh; Talath, Sirajunisa; Mohapatra, Priyanka; Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli; Ballal, Suhas; Kaur, Mandeep; Nathiya, Deepak; Sharma, Shilpa; Prasad, G. V. Siva; Sinha, Aashna; Varma, Amit; Bushi, Ganesh; Gaidhane, Abhay M.; Satapathy, Prakasini; Shabil, Muhammed; Sah, Renu; Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A.; Sah, Ranjit; Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J.; Medicine, School of Medicine
    The recent global resurgence of Mpox (formerly monkeypox), primarily transmitted via close contact and respiratory droplets, highlights a significant shift in its epidemiology, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). This resurgence underscores the need for robust public health responses and improved surveillance. This comprehensive review of current literature focuses on recent outbreaks, virology, and available treatments. Epidemiological data were gathered from various international health reports and analysed to understand transmission dynamics and outbreak patterns. Mpox, characterised by symptoms like fever and rash, has shown variable clinical presentations, particularly among immunocompromised individuals. Recent outbreaks have prompted the development of new diagnostic methods and treatments, including antivirals like Tecovirimat and vaccines such as MVA-BN. Studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of these vaccines in preventing infection, which is crucial for outbreak containment. The global response to the Mpox resurgence requires integrated strategies combining vaccination, antiviral treatments, and public health policies tailored to high-risk populations. Future efforts should focus on vaccine distribution equity and enhancing diagnostic capabilities to effectively manage and mitigate the impact of Mpox.
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    Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries
    (Elsevier, 2024-11-14) Jena, Diptismita; Sridhar, Sathvik Belagodu; Shareef, Javedh; Talath, Sirajunisa; Ballal, Suhas; Kumar, Sanjay; Bhat, Mahakshit; Sharma, Shilpa; Kumar, M. Ravi; Chauhan, Ashish Singh; Gaidhane, Abhay M.; Agarwal, Neha; Bushi, Ganesh; Shabil, Muhammed; Zahiruddin, Quazi Syed; Mohanty, Aroop; Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A.; Sah, Ranjit; Medicine, School of Medicine
    Background: The recent outbreak of Monkeypox (Mpox), particularly the clade 1b variant, have shifted the epidemiological landscape, making it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Africa remains a hotspot with significant ongoing outbreaks, necessitating a focused study on outbreak trends and forecasting to guide health interventions. Methods: This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset from the four most affected African countries, covering weekly and cumulative Mpox cases from August 6, 2023, to August 18, 2024. Time series analysis techniques, including ARIMA models and Join Point Regression, were employed to forecast Mpox trends and analyse the annual percentage change in new cases. Results: Descriptive statistics highlighted significant variability in Mpox cases across the studied regions with the mean cases in Africa at 72.55 and a high standard deviation of 60.885. Forecasting models suggest a continued increase in Mpox cases, with cumulative cases expected to reach 6922.95 by the 65th week (95 % CI: 6158.62 to 7687.27) and new cases projected at 45.93 (95 % CI: -88.17 to 180.04). Conclusion: The study underscores the persistent nature of Mpox outbreaks in Africa and the critical need for continuous surveillance and adaptive public health strategies. The forecasts generated offer valuable insights into potential future trends, aiding in the allocation of resources and the implementation of targeted health interventions to curb the spread of the disease.