Browsing by Author "Farber, David B."

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
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    Aggregate Financial Misreporting and the Predictability of U.S. Recessions
    (SSRN, 2021) Beneish, Messod D.; Farber, David B.; Glendening, Matthew; Shaw, Kenneth W.; Kelley School of Business - Indianapolis
    We rely on the theoretical prediction that financial misreporting peaks before economic busts to examine whether aggregate ex ante measures of the likelihood of financial misreporting improve the predictability of U.S. recessions. We consider six measures of misreporting and show that the Beneish M-Score significantly improves out-of-sample recession prediction at longer forecasting horizons. Specifically, relative to leading models based on yield spreads and market returns, M-Score increases the average probability of a recession across forecast horizons of six-, seven-, and eight-quarters-ahead by 56 percent, 79 percent, and 92 percent, respectively. These findings are robust to alternative definitions of interest rate spreads, and to controlling for the federal funds rate, investor sentiment, and aggregate earnings growth. We show that the performance of M-Score likely arises because firms with high M-Scores tend to experience negative future performance. Overall, this study provides novel evidence that accounting information can be useful to forecasters and regulators interested in assessing the likelihood of U.S. recessions a few quarters ahead.
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    Aggregate Financial Misreporting and the Predictability of U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth
    (American Accounting Association, 2023-09-01) Beneish, Messod D.; Farber, David B.; Glendening, Matthew; Shaw, Kenneth W.; Kelley School of Business
    This study examines the incremental predictive power of aggregate measures of financial misreporting for recession and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We draw on prior research suggesting that misreporting has real economic effects because it represents misinformation on which firms base their investment, hiring, and production decisions. We find that aggregate M-Score incrementally predicts recessions at forecast horizons of five to eight quarters ahead. We also find that aggregate M-Score is significantly associated with lower future growth in real GDP, real investment, consumption, and industrial production. Additionally, our result that aggregate M-Score predicts lower real investment one to four quarters ahead partially accounts for why misreporting predicts recessions five to eight quarters ahead. Our findings are weaker when we use aggregate F-Score as a proxy for misreporting. Overall, this study provides novel evidence that aggregate misreporting measures can aid forecasters and regulators in predicting recessions and real GDP growth.
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    Audit Committee Accounting Expertise, Analyst Following, and Market Liquidity
    (Springer, 2016) Farber, David B.; Huang, Shawn X.; Mauldin, Elaine; IU Kelley School of Business – Indianapolis
    We study the relation between audit committee accounting expertise, analyst following, and market liquidity. Our main results indicate that analyst following increases subsequent to the appointment of an accounting expert to the audit committee. We also provide evidence that accrual quality, as opposed to audit quality or management earnings forecasts, is the channel through which accounting expertise increases analyst following and improves analyst forecast properties. We also show that audit committee accounting expertise is related to higher trading volume and lower liquidity risk, supporting incentives for greater analyst following. Our study extends prior literature by providing evidence that audit committee accounting expertise enhances firms’ information environment beyond the effects it has on financial reporting quality or analysts’ forecast properties. Our study also complements the literature on determinants of analyst following and market liquidity, both of which are related to cost of capital. Results from our study should be useful to firms seeking to enhance analyst following and market liquidity.
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    Managerial Ability and Income Smoothing
    (Allen Press, 2019) Baik, Bok; Choi, Sunhwa; Farber, David B.; Kelley School of Business - Indianapolis
    In this study, we investigate whether managerial ability is related to income smoothing and, if so, whether smoothing associated with managerial ability improves the informativeness of earnings and stock prices about future performance. Using a large sample of firms, we find that managerial ability is positively related to smoothing. More importantly, we show that high ability managers incorporate more forward-looking information about cash flows into current earnings through smoothing, thereby enhancing earnings informativeness. We also find that smoothing associated with high ability managers improves stock price informativeness about future cash flows. Our study should be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and others concerned with understanding the determinants and usefulness of smoothing.
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    Managerial Ability and Income Smoothing
    (American Accounting Association, 2019-10-11) Baik, Bok; Choi, Sunhwa; Farber, David B.; Kelley School of Business
    In this study, we investigate whether managerial ability is related to income smoothing and, if so, whether smoothing associated with managerial ability improves the informativeness of earnings and stock prices about future performance. Using a large sample of firms, we find that managerial ability is positively related to smoothing. More importantly, we show that high-ability managers incorporate more forward-looking information about cash flows into current earnings through smoothing, thereby enhancing earnings informativeness. We also find that smoothing associated with high-ability managers improves stock price informativeness about future cash flows. Our study should be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and others concerned with understanding the determinants and usefulness of smoothing.
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    Managerial Ability and the Quality of Firms’ Information Environment
    (Sage, 2018) Baik, Bok; Brockman, Paul A.; Farber, David B.; Lee, Sam (Sunghan); Kelley School of Business - Indianapolis
    In this study, we examine the relation between managerial ability and the quality of a firm’s information environment. An emerging stream of research has identified managerial ability as an important determinant of accruals quality and management forecast quality. However, our understanding of the impact of managerial ability on a firm’s broader information environment is incomplete because it captures more than these specific financial reporting disclosures. Using a composite index based on various proxies for a firm’s information environment, we find a positive relation between managerial ability and a firm’s information environment. Consistent with our argument that managers’ equity incentives improve disclosure quality, we find that the quality of a firm’s information environment improves when managers have higher levels of equity incentives. We contribute to the literature by providing more complete and conclusive evidence about the impact of managerial ability on a firm’s broader information environment.
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    Stock Market Rewards for Earnings that Beat Analyst Earnings Forecasts when the Economy is Unforecastable
    (SSRN, 2021) Baik, Bok; Duong, Hong Kim; Farber, David B.; Shaw, Kenneth W.; Kelley School of Business - Indianapolis
    This study examines whether and why the stock market assigns an incremental premium to the act of beating analyst earnings forecasts when the economy is unforecastable. Our study uses a novel measure of macroeconomic (macro) uncertainty from Jurado et al. (2015) that captures periods during which the real economy is not forecastable and a regression model that controls for the forecast error throughout the quarter. Results show that during high macro uncertainty periods, the market assigns a greater premium to earnings that beat analyst earnings forecasts compared to the premium assigned to these earnings during low macro uncertainty periods. We also report a lower likelihood of managing earnings to beat analyst earnings forecasts during high macro uncertainty periods, suggesting higher accounting information quality. We further show that the incremental premium in high macro uncertainty periods is mainly concentrated within the group of firms that have both low liquidity risk and high accounting information quality. Evidence from our study should be relevant to those interested in understanding the usefulness of earnings during periods of extreme macro uncertainty and forces that determine accounting information quality.