Browsing by Author "Evans, Jason P."

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments
    (Nature, 2020) Zommers, Zinta; Marbaix, Philippe; Fischlin, Andreas; Ibrahim, Zelina Z.; Magnan, Alexandre K.; Pörtner, Hans-Otto; Howden, Mark; Calvin, Katherine; Warner, Koko; Thiery, Wim; Sebesvari, Zita; Davin, Edouard L.; Evans, Jason P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; O'Neill, Brian C.; Patwardhan, Anand; Warren, Rachel; van Aalst, Maarten; Hulbert, Margot; Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Enhanced canopy growth precedes senescence in 2005 and 2010 Amazonian droughts
    (Elsevier, 2018-06) Liu, Yi Y.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Miralles, Diego G.; McCabe, Matthew F.; Evans, Jason P.; de Jeu, Richard A. M.; Gentine, Pierre; Huete, Alfredo; Parinussa, Robert M.; Wang, Lixin; Guan, Kaiyu; Berry, Joe; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Earth Sciences, School of Science
    Unprecedented droughts hit southern Amazonia in 2005 and 2010, causing a sharp increase in tree mortality and carbon loss. To better predict the rainforest's response to future droughts, it is necessary to understand its behavior during past events. Satellite observations provide a practical source of continuous observations of Amazonian forest. Here we used a passive microwave-based vegetation water content record (i.e., vegetation optical depth, VOD), together with multiple hydrometeorological observations as well as conventional satellite vegetation measures, to investigate the rainforest canopy dynamics during the 2005 and 2010 droughts. During the onset of droughts in the wet-to-dry season (May–July) of both years, we found large-scale positive anomalies in VOD, leaf area index (LAI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) over the southern Amazonia. These observations are very likely caused by enhanced canopy growth. Concurrent below-average rainfall and above-average radiation during the wet-to-dry season can be interpreted as an early arrival of normal dry season conditions, leading to enhanced new leaf development and ecosystem photosynthesis, as supported by field observations. Our results suggest that further rainfall deficit into the subsequent dry season caused water and heat stress during the peak of 2005 and 2010 droughts (August–October) that exceeded the tolerance limits of the rainforest, leading to widespread negative VOD anomalies over the southern Amazonia. Significant VOD anomalies were observed mainly over the western part in 2005 and mainly over central and eastern parts in 2010. The total area with significant negative VOD anomalies was comparable between these two drought years, though the average magnitude of significant negative VOD anomalies was greater in 2005. This finding broadly agrees with the field observations indicating that the reduction in biomass carbon uptake was stronger in 2005 than 2010. The enhanced canopy growth preceding drought-induced senescence should be taken into account when interpreting the ecological impacts of Amazonian droughts.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Stable water isotope and surface heat flux simulation using ISOLSM: Evaluation against in-situ measurements
    (Elsevier, 2015-04) Cai, Mick Y.; Wang, Lixin; Parkes, Stephen D.; McCabe, Matthew F.; Evans, Jason P.; Griffiths, Alan D.
    The stable isotopes of water are useful tracers of water sources and hydrological processes. Stable water isotope-enabled land surface modeling is a relatively new approach for characterizing the hydrological cycle, providing spatial and temporal variability for a number of hydrological processes. At the land surface, the integration of stable water isotopes with other meteorological measurements can assist in constraining surface heat flux estimates and discriminate between evaporation (E) and transpiration (T). However, research in this area has traditionally been limited by a lack of continuous in-situ isotopic observations. Here, the National Centre for Atmospheric Research stable isotope-enabled Land Surface Model (ISOLSM) is used to simulate the water and energy fluxes and stable water isotope variations. The model was run for a period of one month with meteorological data collected from a coastal sub-tropical site near Sydney, Australia. The modeled energy fluxes (latent heat and sensible heat) agreed reasonably well with eddy covariance observations, indicating that ISOLSM has the capacity to reproduce observed flux behavior. Comparison of modeled isotopic compositions of evapotranspiration (ET) against in-situ Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) measured bulk water vapor isotopic data (10 m above the ground), however, showed differences in magnitude and temporal patterns. The disparity is due to a small contribution from local ET fluxes to atmospheric boundary layer water vapor (∼1% based on calculations using ideal gas law) relative to that advected from the ocean for this particular site. Using ISOLSM simulation, the ET was partitioned into E and T with 70% being T. We also identified that soil water from different soil layers affected T and E differently based on the simulated soil isotopic patterns, which reflects the internal working of ISOLSM. These results highlighted the capacity of using the isotope-enabled models to discriminate between different hydrological components and add insight into expected hydrological behavior.