Browsing by Author "Engel, Samuel S."

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    Predictive Modeling of Hypoglycemia for Clinical Decision Support in Evaluating Outpatients with Diabetes Mellitus
    (Taylor & Francis, 2019) Li, Xiaochun; Yu, Shengsheng; Zhang, Zuoyi; Radican, Larry; Cummins, Jonathan; Engel, Samuel S.; Iglay, Kristy; Duke, Jon; Baker, Jarod; Brodovicz, Kimberly G.; Naik, Ramachandra G.; Leventhal, Jeremy; Chatterjee, Arnaub K.; Rajpathak, Swapnil; Weiner, Michael; Biostatistics, School of Public Health
    Objective: Hypoglycemia occurs in 20–60% of patients with diabetes mellitus. Identifying at-risk patients can facilitate interventions to lower risk. We sought to develop a hypoglycemia prediction model. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, urban adults prescribed a diabetes drug between 2004 and 2013 were identified. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from an electronic medical record (EMR). Laboratory tests, diagnostic codes and natural language processing (NLP) identified hypoglycemia. We compared multiple logistic regression, classification and regression trees (CART), and random forest. Models were evaluated on an independent test set or through cross-validation. Results: The 38,780 patients had mean age 57 years; 56% were female, 40% African-American and 39% uninsured. Hypoglycemia occurred in 8128 (539 identified only by NLP). In logistic regression, factors positively associated with hypoglycemia included infection, non-long-acting insulin, dementia and recent hypoglycemia. Negatively associated factors included long-acting insulin plus sulfonylurea, and age 75 or older. The models’ area under curve was similar (logistic regression, 89%; CART, 88%; random forest, 90%, with ten-fold cross-validation). Conclusions: NLP improved identification of hypoglycemia. Non-long-acting insulin was an important risk factor. Decreased risk with age may reflect treatment or diminished awareness of hypoglycemia. More complex models did not improve prediction.
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    A randomized study on the usefulness of an electronic outpatient hypoglycemia risk calculator for clinicians of patients with diabetes in a safety-net institution
    (Taylor & Francis, 2020) Weiner, Michael; Cummins, Jonathan; Raji, Annaswamy; Ofner, Susan; Iglay, Kristy; Teal, Evgenia; Li, Xiaochun; Engel, Samuel S.; Knapp, Kristina; Rajpathak, Swapnil; Baker, Jarod; Chatterjee, Arnaub K.; Radican, Larry; Medicine, School of Medicine
    Objective: Hypoglycemia (HG) occurs in up to 60% of patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) each year. We assessed a HG alert tool in an electronic health record system, and determined its effect on clinical practice and outcomes. Methods: The tool applied a statistical model, yielding patient-specific information about HG risk. We randomized outpatient primary-care providers (PCPs) to see or not see the alerts. Patients were assigned to study group according to the first PCP seen during four months. We assessed prescriptions, testing, and HG. Variables were compared by multinomial, logistic, or linear model. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT04177147 (registered on 22 November 2019). Results: Patients (N = 3350) visited 123 intervention PCPs; 3395 patients visited 220 control PCPs. Intervention PCPs were shown 18,645 alerts (mean of 152 per PCP). Patients’ mean age was 55 years, with 61% female, 49% black, and 49% Medicaid recipients. Mean baseline A1c and body mass index were similar between groups. During follow-up, the number of A1c and glucose tests, and number of new, refilled, changed, or discontinued insulin prescriptions, were highest for patients with highest risk. Per 100 patients on average, the intervention group had fewer sulfonylurea refills (6 vs. 8; p < .05) and outpatient encounters (470 vs. 502; p < .05), though the change in encounters was not significant. Frequency of HG events was unchanged. Conclusions: Informing PCPs about risk of HG led to fewer sulfonylurea refills and visits. Longer-term studies are needed to assess potential for long-term benefits.