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Item Association of hemoglobin levels in the first trimester and at 26 to 30 weeks with fetal and neonatal outcomes: A secondary analyses of the Global Network for Women’s and Children’s Health’s ASPIRIN Trial(Wiley, 2021) Jessani, Saleem; Saleem, Sarah; Hoffman, Matthew K.; Goudar, Shivaprasad S.; Derman, Richard J.; Moore, Janet L.; Garces, Ana; Figueroa, Lester; Krebs, Nancy F.; Okitawutshu, Jean; Tshefu, Antoinette; Bose, Carl L.; Mwenechanya, Musaku; Chomba, Elwyn; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Das, Prabir Kumar; Patel, Archana; Hibberd, Patricia L.; Esamai, Fabian; Liechty, Edward A.; Bucher, Sherri; Nolen, Tracy L.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Miodovnik, Menachem; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public HealthObjective: Limited data are available from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the relationship of haemoglobin levels to adverse outcomes at different times during pregnancy. We evaluated the association of haemoglobin levels in nulliparous women at two times in pregnancy with pregnancy outcomes. Design: ASPIRIN Trial data were used to study the association between haemoglobin levels measured at 6+0 -13+6 weeks and 26+0 -30+0 weeks of gestation with fetal and neonatal outcomes. Setting: Obstetric care facilities in Pakistan, India, Kenya, Zambia, The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guatemala. Population: A total of 11 976 pregnant women. Methods: Generalised linear models were used to obtain adjusted relative risks and 95% CI for adverse outcomes. Main outcome measures: Preterm birth, stillbirth, neonatal death, small for gestational age (SGA) and birthweight <2500 g. Results: The mean haemoglobin levels at 6+0 -13+6 weeks and at 26-30 weeks of gestation were 116 g/l (SD 17) and 107 g/l (SD 15), respectively. In general, pregnancy outcomes were better with increasing haemoglobin. At 6+0 -13+6 weeks of gestation, stillbirth, SGA and birthweight <2500 g, were significantly associated with haemoglobin of 70-89 g/l compared with haemoglobin of 110-129 g/l The relationships of adverse pregnancy outcomes with various haemoglobin levels were more marked at 26-30 weeks of gestation. Conclusions: Both lower and some higher haemoglobin concentrations are associated with adverse fetal and neonatal outcomes at 6+0 -13+6 weeks and at 26-30 weeks of gestation, although the relationship with low haemoglobin levels appears more consistent and generally stronger.Item Cost-effectiveness of low-dose aspirin for the prevention of preterm birth: a prospective study of the Global Network for Women's and Children's Health Research(Elsevier, 2023) Patterson, Jackie K.; Neuwahl, Simon; Goco, Norman; Moore, Janet; Goudar, Shivaprasad S.; Derman, Richard J.; Hoffman, Matthew; Metgud, Mrityunjay; Somannavar, Manjunath; Kavi, Avinash; Okitawutshu, Jean; Lokangaka, Adrien; Tshefu, Antoinette; Bose, Carl L.; Mwapule, Abigail; Mwenechanya, Musaku; Chomba, Elwyn; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Chicuy, Javier; Figueroa, Lester; Krebs, Nancy F.; Jessani, Saleem; Saleem, Sarah; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Kurhe, Kunal; Das, Prabir; Patel, Archana; Hibberd, Patricia L.; Achieng, Emmah; Nyongesa, Paul; Esamai, Fabian; Bucher, Sherri; Liechty, Edward A.; Bresnahan, Brian W.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineBackground: Premature birth is associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, and strategies to prevent preterm birth are few in number and resource intensive. In 2020, the ASPIRIN trial showed the efficacy of low-dose aspirin (LDA) in nulliparous, singleton pregnancies for the prevention of preterm birth. We sought to investigate the cost-effectiveness of this therapy in low-income and middle-income countries. Methods: In this post-hoc, prospective, cost-effectiveness study, we constructed a probabilistic decision tree model to compare the benefits and costs of LDA treatment compared with standard care using primary data and published results from the ASPIRIN trial. In this analysis from a health-care sector perspective, we considered the costs and effects of LDA treatment, pregnancy outcomes, and neonatal health-care use. We did sensitivity analyses to understand the effect of the price of the LDA regimen, and the effectiveness of LDA in reducing both preterm birth and perinatal death. Findings: In model simulations, LDA was associated with 141 averted preterm births, 74 averted perinatal deaths, and 31 averted hospitalisations per 10 000 pregnancies. The reduction in hospitalisation resulted in a cost of US$248 per averted preterm birth, $471 per averted perinatal death, and $15·95 per disability-adjusted life year. Interpretation: LDA treatment in nulliparous, singleton pregnancies is a low-cost, effective treatment to reduce preterm birth and perinatal death. The low cost per disability-adjusted life year averted strengthens the evidence in support of prioritising the implementation of LDA in publicly funded health care in low-income and middle-income countries.Item Including ultrasound scans in antenatal care in low-resource settings: Considering the complementarity of obstetric ultrasound screening and maternity waiting homes in strengthening referral systems in low-resource, rural settings(Elsevier, 2019) Swanson, David L.; Franklin, Holly L.; Swanson, Jonathan O.; Goldenberg, Robert L.; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Mirza, Waseem; Muyodi, David; Figueroa, Lester; Goldsmith, Nicole; Kanaiza, Nancy; Naqvi, Farnaz; Pineda, Irma Sayury; López-Gomez, Walter; Hamsumonde, Dorothy; Bolamba, Victor Lokomba; Newman, Jamie E.; Fogleman, Elizabeth V.; Saleem, Sarah; Esamai, Fabian; Bucher, Sherri; Liechty, Edward A.; Garces, Ana L.; Krebs, Nancy F.; Hambidge, K. Michael; Chomba, Elwyn; Bauserman, Melissa; Mwenechanya, Musaku; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Tshefu, Antoinette; Lokangaka, Adrien; Bose, Carl L.; Nathan, Robert O.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineRecent World Health Organization (WHO) antenatal care recommendations include an ultrasound scan as a part of routine antenatal care. The First Look Study, referenced in the WHO recommendation, subsequently shows that the routine use of ultrasound during antenatal care in rural, low-income settings did not improve maternal, fetal or neonatal mortality, nor did it increase women's use of antenatal care or the rate of hospital births. This article reviews the First Look Study, reconsidering the assumptions upon which it was built in light of these results, a supplemental descriptive study of interviews with patients and sonographers that participated in the First Look study intervention, and a review of the literature. Two themes surface from this review. The first is that focused emphasis on building the pregnancy risk screening skills of rural primary health care personnel may not lead to adaptations in referral hospital processes that could benefit the patient accordingly. The second is that agency to improve the quality of patient reception at referral hospitals may need to be manufactured for obstetric ultrasound screening, or remote pregnancy risk screening more generally, to have the desired impact. Stemming from the literature, this article goes on to examine the potential for complementarity between obstetric ultrasound screening and another approach encouraged by the WHO, the maternity waiting home. Each approach may address existing shortcomings in how the other is currently understood. This paper concludes by proposing a path toward developing and testing such a hybrid approach.Item Low-Dose Aspirin for the Prevention of Preterm Delivery in Nulliparous Women with a Singleton Pregnancy: A Randomised Multi-country Placebo Controlled Trial(Elsevier, 2020) Hoffman, Matthew K.; Goudar, Shivaprasad S.; Kodkany, Bhalachandra S.; Metgud, Mrityunjay; Somannavar, Manjunath; Okitawutshu, Jean; Lokangaka, Adrien; Tshefu, Antoinette; Bose, Carl L.; Mwapule, Abigail; Mwenechanya, Musaku; Chomba, Elwyn; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Chicuy, Javier; Figueroa, Lester; Garces, Ana; Krebs, Nancy F.; Jessani, Saleem; Zehra, Farnaz; Saleem, Sarah; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Kurhe, Kunal; Das, Prabir; Patel, Archana; Hibberd, Patricia L.; Achieng, Emmah; Nyongesa, Paul; Esamai, Fabian; Liechty, Edward A.; Goco, Norman; Hemingway-Foday, Jennifer; Moore, Janet; Nolen, Tracy L.; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Miodovnik, Menachem; Silver, Robert; Derman, Richard J.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineBackground: Preterm birth remains a common cause of neonatal mortality with a disproportionate burden occurring in low and middle-income countries. Meta-analyses of low-dose aspirin to prevent preeclampsia suggest that the incidence of preterm birth may also be decreased, particularly if initiated before 16 weeks. Methods: We completed a randomised multi-country (Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala, India, Kenya, Pakistan, Zambia) double masked trial of aspirin (81 mg) daily compared to placebo initiated between 6 weeks and 0 days and 13 weeks and 6 days of pregnancy in nulliparous women between14 and 40 years of age with an ultrasound confirming gestational age and singleton viable pregnancy. Randomisation (1:1) was stratified by site. The primary outcome of preterm birth, defined as delivery prior to 37 weeks gestational age, was analyzed in randomised women with pregnancy outcomes at or after 20 weeks. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02409680, and the Clinical Trial Registry, India, number CTRI/2016/05/006970. Findings: From March 2016 through June 2018, 11,976 women were assigned to aspirin (5,990 women) or placebo (5,986 women). Amongst randomised women, an evaluable birth outcome beyond 20 weeks occurred in 5787 women who received Aspirin and 5771 women who received placebo Preterm birth occurred in 11.6% of women randomised to aspirin and 13.1% randomised to placebo (Relative Risk [RR], 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.98; Risk Difference, −0·02; 95% CI, −0·03, −0·01). Women randomised to aspirin were less likely to experience perinatal mortality (45.7/1000 vs 53.6/1000; RR, 0.86; 95%CI, 0.73 to 1.00). Other adverse maternal/neonatal events were similar between the two groups. Interpretation: In nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies, low dose aspirin initiated between 6 weeks and 0 days and 13 weeks and 6 days results in lower rates of preterm delivery before 37 weeks and perinatal mortality.Item Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum Infection in the First Trimester Among Nulliparous Women From Kenya, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo(Oxford University Press, 2022) Leuba, Sequoia I.; Westreich, Daniel; Bose, Carl L.; Powers, Kimberly A.; Olshan, Andy; Taylor, Steve M.; Tshefu, Antoinette; Lokangaka, Adrien; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Chomba, Elwyn; Liechty, Edward A.; Bucher, Sherri L.; Esamai, Fabian; Jessani, Saleem; Saleem, Sarah; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Moore, Janet; Nolen, Tracy; Hemingway-Foday, Jennifer; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Derman, Richard J.; Hoffman, Matthew; Bauserman, Melissa; Pediatrics, School of MedicineBackground: Malaria can have deleterious effects early in pregnancy, during placentation. However, malaria testing and treatment are rarely initiated until the second trimester, leaving pregnancies unprotected in the first trimester. To inform potential early intervention approaches, we sought to identify clinical and demographic predictors of first-trimester malaria. Methods: We prospectively recruited women from sites in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, and Zambia who participated in the ASPIRIN (Aspirin Supplementation for Pregnancy Indicated risk Reduction In Nulliparas) trial. Nulliparous women were tested for first-trimester Plasmodium falciparum infection by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. We evaluated predictors using descriptive statistics. Results: First-trimester malaria prevalence among 1513 nulliparous pregnant women was 6.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7%-8.8%] in the Zambian site, 37.8% (95% CI, 34.2%-41.5%) in the Kenyan site, and 62.9% (95% CI, 58.6%-67.2%) in the DRC site. First-trimester malaria was associated with shorter height and younger age in Kenyan women in site-stratified analyses, and with lower educational attainment in analyses combining all 3 sites. No other predictors were identified. Conclusions: First-trimester malaria prevalence varied by study site in sub-Saharan Africa. The absence of consistent predictors suggests that routine parasite screening in early pregnancy may be needed to mitigate first-trimester malaria in high-prevalence settings.Item A Prospective Cause of Death Classification System for Maternal Deaths in Low and Middle-Income Countries: Results from the Global Network Maternal Newborn Health Registry(Wiley, 2017) Pasha, Omrana; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Saleem, Sarah; Sunder, Shiyam; Lokangaka, Adrien; Tshefu, Antoinette; Bose, Carl L.; Bauserman, Melissa; Mwenechanya, Musaku; Chomba, Elwyn; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Garces, Ana L.; Figueroa, Lester; Hambidge, K. Michael; Krebs, Nancy F.; Goudar, Shivaprasad; Kodkany, Bhalachandra S.; Dhaded, Sangappa; Derman, Richard J.; Patel, Archana; Hibberd, Patricia L.; Esamai, Fabian; Tenge, Constance; Liechty, Edward A.; Moore, Janet L.; Wallace, Dennis D.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Miodovnik, Menachem; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineObjective To describe the causes of maternal death in a population-based cohort in six low and middle-income countries using a standardized, hierarchical, algorithmic cause of death (COD) methodology. Design A population-based, prospective observational study. Setting Seven sites in six low-middle income countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guatemala, India (2), Kenya, Pakistan and Zambia. Population All deaths amongst pregnant women resident in the study sites from 2014 to December 2016. Methods For women who died, we used a standardized questionnaire to collect clinical data regarding maternal conditions present during pregnancy and delivery. These data were analyzed using a computer-based algorithm to assign cause of maternal death based on the International Classification of Disease - Maternal Mortality system (trauma, abortion-related, eclampsia, hemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection and medical conditions). We also compared the COD results to health care provider assigned maternal COD. Main Outcome Measures Assigned causes of maternal mortality. Results Amongst 158,205 women, there were 221 maternal deaths. The most common algorithm-assigned maternal COD were obstetric hemorrhage (38.6%), pregnancy-related infection (26.4%) and preeclampsia/eclampsia (18.2%). Agreement between algorithm-assigned COD and COD assigned by health care providers ranged from 75% for hemorrhage to 25% for medical causes coincident to pregnancy. Conclusions The major maternal COD in the Global Network sites were hemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection and preeclampsia/eclampsia. This system could allow public health programs in low and middle-income countries to generate transparent and comparable data for maternal COD across time or regions.Item Safety of daily low-dose aspirin use during pregnancy in low-income and middle-income countries(Elsevier, 2021) Short, Vanessa L.; Hoffman, Matthew; Metgud, Mrityunjay; Kavi, Avinash; Goudar, Shivaprasad S.; Okitawutshu, Jean; Tshefu, Antoinette; Bose, Carl L.; Mwenechanya, Musaku; Chomba, Elwyn; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Figueroa, Lester; Garces, Ana; Krebs, Nancy F.; Jessani, Saleem; Saleem, Sarah; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Das, Prabir Kumar; Patel, Archana; Hibberd, Patricia L.; Achieng, Emmah; Nyongesa, Paul; Esamai, Fabian; Bucher, Sherri; Nowak, Kayla J.; Goco, Norman; Nolen, Tracy L.; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Miodovnik, Menachem; Derman, Richard J.; Medicine, School of MedicineBACKGROUND The daily use of low-dose aspirin may be a safe, widely available, and inexpensive intervention for reducing the risk of preterm birth. Data on the potential side effects of low-dose aspirin use during pregnancy in low- and middle-income countries are needed. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess differences in unexpected emergency medical visits and potential maternal side effects from a randomized, double-blind, multicountry, placebo-controlled trial of low-dose aspirin use (81 mg daily, from 6 to 36 weeks’ gestation). STUDY DESIGN This study was a secondary analysis of data from the Aspirin Supplementation for Pregnancy Indicated Risk Reduction In Nulliparas trial, a trial of the Global Network for Women's and Children's Health conducted in India (2 sites), Pakistan, Guatemala, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, and Zambia. The outcomes for this analysis were unexpected emergency medical visits and the occurrence of the following potential side effects—overall and separately—nausea, vomiting, rash or hives, diarrhea, gastritis, vaginal bleeding, allergic reaction, and any other potential side effects. Analyses were performed overall and by geographic region. RESULTS Between the aspirin (n=5943) and placebo (n=5936) study groups, there was no statistically significant difference in the risk of unexpected emergency medical visits or the risk of any potential side effect (overall). Of the 8 potential side effects assessed, only 1 (rash or hives) presented a different risk by treatment group (4.2% in the aspirin group vs 3.5% in the placebo group; relative risk, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–1.43; P=.042). CONCLUSION The daily use of low-dose aspirin seems to be a safe intervention for reducing the risk of preterm birth and well tolerated by nulliparous pregnant women between 6 and 36 weeks’ gestation in low- and middle-income countries.Item Stillbirth 2010-2018: a prospective, population-based, multi-country study from the Global Network(Springer Nature, 2020-11-30) McClure, Elizabeth M.; Saleem, Sarah; Goudar, Shivaprasad S.; Garces, Ana; Whitworth, Ryan; Esamai, Fabian; Patel, Archana B.; Sunder Tikmani, Shiyam; Mwenechanya, Musaku; Chomba, Elwyn; Lokangaka, Adrien; Bose, Carl L.; Bucher, Sherri; Liechty, Edward A.; Krebs, Nancy F.; Kumar, S. Yogesh; Derman, Richard J.; Hibberd, Patricia L.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Moore, Janet L.; Nolen, Tracy L.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineBackground: Stillbirth rates are high and represent a substantial proportion of the under-5 mortality in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). In LMIC, where nearly 98% of stillbirths worldwide occur, few population-based studies have documented cause of stillbirths or the trends in rate of stillbirth over time. Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based multi-country research study of all pregnant women in defined geographic areas across 7 sites in low-resource settings (Kenya, Zambia, Democratic Republic of Congo, India, Pakistan, and Guatemala). Staff collected demographic and health care characteristics with outcomes obtained at delivery. Cause of stillbirth was assigned by algorithm. Results: From 2010 through 2018, 573,148 women were enrolled with delivery data obtained. Of the 552,547 births that reached 500 g or 20 weeks gestation, 15,604 were stillbirths; a rate of 28.2 stillbirths per 1000 births. The stillbirth rates were 19.3 in the Guatemala site, 23.8 in the African sites, and 33.3 in the Asian sites. Specifically, stillbirth rates were highest in the Pakistan site, which also documented a substantial decrease in stillbirth rates over the study period, from 56.0 per 1000 (95% CI 51.0, 61.0) in 2010 to 44.4 per 1000 (95% CI 39.1, 49.7) in 2018. The Nagpur, India site also documented a substantial decrease in stillbirths from 32.5 (95% CI 29.0, 36.1) to 16.9 (95% CI 13.9, 19.9) per 1000 in 2018; however, other sites had only small declines in stillbirth over the same period. Women who were less educated and older as well as those with less access to antenatal care and with vaginal assisted delivery were at increased risk of stillbirth. The major fetal causes of stillbirth were birth asphyxia (44.0% of stillbirths) and infectious causes (22.2%). The maternal conditions that were observed among those with stillbirth were obstructed or prolonged labor, antepartum hemorrhage and maternal infections. Conclusions: Over the study period, stillbirth rates have remained relatively high across all sites. With the exceptions of the Pakistan and Nagpur sites, Global Network sites did not observe substantial changes in their stillbirth rates. Women who were less educated and had less access to antenatal and obstetric care remained at the highest burden of stillbirth.Item The efficacy of low-dose aspirin in pregnancy among women in malaria-endemic countries(Springer, 2022-04-10) Bauserman, Melissa; Leuba, Sequoia I.; Hemingway-Foday, Jennifer; Nolen, Tracy L.; Moore, Janet; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Lokangaka, Adrien; Tsehfu, Antoinette; Patterson, Jackie; Liechty, Edward A.; Esamai, Fabian; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Chomba, Elwyn; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Saleem, Sarah; Jessani, Saleem; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Hoffman, Matthew; Derman, Richard J.; Meshnick, Steven R.; Bose, Carl L.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineBackground Low dose aspirin (LDA) is an effective strategy to reduce preterm birth. However, LDA might have differential effects globally, based on the etiology of preterm birth. In some regions, malaria in pregnancy could be an important modifier of LDA on birth outcomes and anemia. Methods This is a sub-study of the ASPIRIN trial, a multi-national, randomized, placebo controlled trial evaluating LDA effect on preterm birth. We enrolled a convenience sample of women in the ASPIRIN trial from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya and Zambia. We used quantitative polymerase chain reaction to detect malaria. We calculated crude prevalence proportion ratios (PRs) for LDA by malaria for outcomes, and regression modelling to evaluate effect measure modification. We evaluated hemoglobin in late pregnancy based on malaria infection in early pregnancy. Results One thousand four hundred forty-six women were analyzed, with a malaria prevalence of 63% in the DRC site, 38% in the Kenya site, and 6% in the Zambia site. Preterm birth occurred in 83 (LDA) and 90 (placebo) women, (PR 0.92, 95% CI 0.70, 1.22), without interaction between LDA and malaria (p = 0.75). Perinatal mortality occurred in 41 (LDA) and 43 (placebo) pregnancies, (PR 0.95, 95% CI 0.63, 1.44), with an interaction between malaria and LDA (p = 0.014). Hemoglobin was similar by malaria and LDA status. Conclusions Malaria in early pregnancy did not modify the effects of LDA on preterm birth, but modified the effect of LDA on perinatal mortality. This effect measure modification deserves continued study as LDA is used in malaria endemic regions.Item The Global Network Neonatal Cause of Death algorithm for low-resource settings(Wiley, 2017) Garces, Ana L.; McClure, Elizabeth M.; Pérez, Wilton; Hambidge, K. Michael; Krebs, Nancy F.; Figueroa, Lester; Bose, Carl L.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Tenge, Constance; Esamai, Fabian; Goudar, Shivaprasad S.; Saleem, Sarah; Patel, Archana B.; Chiwila, Melody; Chomba, Elwyn; Tshefu, Antoinette; Derman, Richard J.; Hibberd, Patricia L.; Bucher, Sherri; Liechty, Edward A.; Bauserman, Melissa; Moore, Janet L.; Koso-Thomas, Marion; Miodovnik, Menachem; Goldenberg, Robert L.; Pediatrics, School of MedicineAim: This study estimated the causes of neonatal death using an algorithm for low-resource areas, where 98% of the world's neonatal deaths occur. Methods: We enrolled women in India, Pakistan, Guatemala, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Zambia from 2014 to 2016 and tracked their delivery and newborn outcomes for up to 28 days. Antenatal care and delivery symptoms were collected using a structured questionnaire, clinical observation and/or a physical examination. The Global Network Cause of Death algorithm was used to assign the cause of neonatal death, analysed by country and day of death. Results: One-third (33.1%) of the 3068 neonatal deaths were due to suspected infection, 30.8% to prematurity, 21.2% to asphyxia, 9.5% to congenital anomalies and 5.4% did not have a cause of death assigned. Prematurity and asphyxia-related deaths were more common on the first day of life (46.7% and 52.9%, respectively), while most deaths due to infection occurred after the first day of life (86.9%). The distribution of causes was similar to global data reported by other major studies. Conclusion: The Global Network algorithm provided a reliable cause of neonatal death in low-resource settings and can be used to inform public health strategies to reduce mortality.