Browsing by Author "Blackford, Amanda L."

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    A risk prediction tool for individuals with a family history of breast, ovarian, or pancreatic cancer: BRCAPANCPRO
    (Springer Nature, 2021) Blackford, Amanda L.; Childs, Erica J.; Porter, Nancy; Petersen, Gloria M.; Rabe, Kari G.; Gallinger, Steven; Borgida, Ayelet; Syngal, Sapna; Cote, Michele L.; Schwartz, Ann G.; Goggins, Michael G.; Hruban, Ralph H.; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Klein, Alison P.; Epidemiology, Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health
    Introduction: Identifying families with an underlying inherited cancer predisposition is a major goal of cancer prevention efforts. Mendelian risk models have been developed to better predict the risk associated with a pathogenic variant of developing breast/ovarian cancer (with BRCAPRO) and the risk of developing pancreatic cancer (PANCPRO). Given that pathogenic variants involving BRCA2 and BRCA1 predispose to all three of these cancers, we developed a joint risk model to capture shared susceptibility. Methods: We expanded the existing framework for PANCPRO and BRCAPRO to jointly model risk of pancreatic, breast, and ovarian cancer and validated this new model, BRCAPANCPRO on three data sets each reflecting the common target populations. Results: BRCAPANCPRO outperformed the prior BRCAPRO and PANCPRO models and yielded good discrimination for differentiating BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers from non-carriers (AUCs 0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84 and 0.70, 95% CI: 0.60-0.80) in families seen in high-risk clinics and pancreatic cancer family registries, respectively. In addition, BRCAPANCPRO was reasonably well calibrated for predicting future risk of pancreatic cancer (observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio = 0.81 [0.69, 0.94]). Discussion: The BRCAPANCPRO model provides improved risk assessment over our previous risk models, particularly for pedigrees with a co-occurrence of pancreatic cancer and breast and/or ovarian cancer.
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    Changes in breast density and circulating estrogens in postmenopausal women receiving adjuvant anastrozole
    (AACR, 2011-12) Prowell, Tatiana M.; Blackford, Amanda L.; Byrne, Celia; Khouri, Nagi F.; Dowsett, Mitchell; Folkerd, Elizabeth; Tarpinian, Karineh S.; Powers, Pendleton P.; Wright, Laurie A.; Donehower, Michele G.; Jeter, Stacie C.; Armstrong, Deborah K.; Emens, Leisha A.; Fetting, John H.; Wolff, Antonio C.; Garrett-Mayer, Elizabeth; Skaar, Todd C.; Davidson, Nancy E.; Stearns, Vered
    Factors associated with an increased risk of breast cancer include prior breast cancer, high circulating estrogens, and increased breast density. Adjuvant aromatase inhibitors are associated with a reduction in incidence of contralateral breast cancer. We conducted a prospective, single-arm, single-institution study to determine whether use of anastrozole is associated with changes in contralateral breast density and circulating estrogens. Eligible patients included postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer who had completed local therapy, had an intact contralateral breast, and were recommended an aromatase inhibitor as their only systemic therapy. Participants received anastrozole 1 mg daily for 12 months on study. We assessed contralateral breast density and serum estrogens at baseline, 6, and 12 months. The primary endpoint was change in contralateral percent breast density from baseline to 12 months. Secondary endpoints included change in serum estrone sulfate from baseline to 12 months. Fifty-four patients were accrued. At 12 months, compared with baseline, there was a nonstatistically significant reduction in breast density (mean change: -16%, 95% CI: -30 to 2, P = 0.08) and a significant reduction in estrone sulfate (mean change: -93%, 95% CI: -94 to -91, P < 0.001). Eighteen women achieved 20% or greater relative reduction in contralateral percent density at 12 months compared with baseline; however, no measured patient or disease characteristics distinguished these women from the overall population. Large trials are required to provide additional data on the relationship between aromatase inhibitors and breast density and, more importantly, whether observed changes in breast density correlate with meaningful disease-specific outcomes.
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    Development of Fibro-PeN, a clinical prediction model for moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
    (Wolters Kluwer, 2024) Wang, Andrew; Blackford, Amanda L.; Behling, Cynthia; Wilson, Laura A.; Newton, Kimberly P.; Xanthakos, Stavra A.; Fishbein, Mark H.; Vos, Miriam B.; Mouzaki, Marialena; Molleston, Jean P.; Jain, Ajay K.; Hertel, Paula; Harlow Adams, Kathryn; Schwimmer, Jeffrey B.; NASH CRN; Pediatrics, School of Medicine
    Background and aims: Liver fibrosis is common in children with NAFLD and is an important determinant of outcomes. High-performing noninvasive models to assess fibrosis in children are needed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance of existing pediatric and adult fibrosis prediction models and to develop a clinical prediction rule for identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with NAFLD. Approach and results: We enrolled children with biopsy-proven NAFLD in the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network within 90 days of liver biopsy. We staged liver fibrosis in consensus using the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scoring system. We evaluated existing pediatric and adult models for fibrosis and developed a new pediatric model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with linear and spline terms for discriminating moderate-to-severe fibrosis from none or mild fibrosis. The model was internally validated with 10-fold cross-validation. We evaluated 1055 children with NAFLD, of whom 26% had moderate-to-severe fibrosis. Existing models performed poorly in classifying fibrosis in children, with area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) ranging from 0.57 to 0.64. In contrast, our new model, fibrosis in pediatric NAFLD was derived from fourteen common clinical variables and had an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77-0.81) with 72% sensitivity and 76% specificity for identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis. Conclusion: Existing fibrosis prediction models have limited clinical utility in children with NAFLD. Fibrosis in pediatric NAFLD offers improved performance characteristics for risk stratification by identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with NAFLD.